𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Will the trickle of Conservatives defecting to Reform UK soon become a deluge? Hot on the heels of former Tory MPs Ross Thomson and Anne Marie Morris, former Conservative cabinet minister David Jones has now joined Nigel Farage’s party. Announcing the move, Jones said he was “disillusioned” by the Conservatives and only Reform showed “the determination needed to tackle the country’s many problems” including illegal immigration and the cost of living.

For the time being Jones will not seek elected office, unlike fellow ex-Tory MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns who was recently elected mayor of Greater Lincolnshire. Nevertheless this is another coup for Farage as Reform continues to lead the polls while Kemi Badenoch’s Tories bottom out at around 17%.

Jones’s move is noteworthy as Wales prepares for the Senedd Election in 2026.

Polling there currently has Reform ahead of Labour on 25% making them the second largest party behind Plaid Cymru on 30%.

Will others join Jones? For now the defections have been former MPs rather than current, perhaps owing to a wait and see policy among sympathetic Conservative backbenchers.

For example, former Conservative cabinet minister Suella Braverman, while refusing to rule out joining Reform after her husband made the jump, has so far stuck with the Tories.

For Farage, defections help his case that Reform is eclipsing the Conservatives as the real opposition to Labour, though it would help if some defections came from sitting MPs.

That would not only beef up Reform’s numbers in Parliament but could encourage others to jump ship. Still, there is a risk for Farage in having his party – especially the parliamentary party – stuffed with ex-Tories.

Labour already paints Reform as Conservative lite while Reform is keen to woo Labour voters, as it did in Runcorn. Farage won’t want to give Sir Keir Starmer’s party ammunition, especially aa Reform courts more voters in the North and Midlands.

Still, Jones’s defection is a coup, adding yet more pressure to Kemi Badenoch. Farage may worry however that too much pressure will force a change of leadership for the Conservatives, hardly an appetising prospect when Badenoch’s leadership is seemingly aiding Reform’s chances.