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Keir Starmer fears a wipeout in next year’s local elections as voters in big cities turn against Labour over the Gaza conflict and anger at being “taken for granted”. He was warned last night that a u-turn over recognising a Palestinian state will not be enough to win back support from anti-Israel left-wingers and Muslim voters.

Reform could be the big winners after polling identified at least eight Labour-held constituencies where growing support for “pro-Gaza” candidates, such as independents, Greens or a new party led by Jeremy Corbyn, could split the left-wing vote and hand victory to Nigel Farage’s candidates at the next general election.

Party insiders say fear that Labour is haemorrhaging support among voters critical of Israel helps explain why the Prime Minister announced last week that he will recognise a Palestinian state.

Sir Keir’s announcement came after 133 Labour MPs signed a letter demanding he recognise a Palestinian as a state immediately.

A Labour source said: “It’s pretty obvious that the Labour MPs who sent a letter to him recently want to demonstrate to their constituents that they are on the side of the Palestinians somehow. I don’t see how it is going to make any difference in Gaza, but it is a gesture.”

More in Common, which organises focus groups and polling, said next year’s local and devolved elections could prove disastrous for Labour, which is expected to lose ground to pro-independence parties in Scotland and Wales, and to independents in the big cities.

Associate Director Ed Hodgson said: “Local elections next year could be a real bloodbath for Labour.

“It looks like they could go to third place in Wales and in Scotland. At the same time, London and Birmingham have local elections and it is in those seats where independents and Corbyn could be making really big gains.

“The moment that Starmer will feel the first real political pressure on his leadership will be after those elections.”

Labour lost four Parliamentary seats to independent pro-Gaza candidates in the 2024 general election, in addition to Islington North where former leader Jeremy Corbyn, known for his pro-Palestine views, was elected as an independent.

Polling by More in Common suggests independents would win three additional seats if an election was held today.

The think tank has also identified eight constituencies where independents would take enough votes from Labour to allow Reform UK to win. They include Birmingham Yardley; Oldham West, Chadderton & Royton; Rochdale; Bradford East; Birmingham Hodge Hill & Solihull North; Preston; Luton South & South Bedfordshire, and Luton North.

The Prime Minister’s decision to recognise a Palestinian state is unlikely to help, with former Labour voters telling focus groups they have “had enough” of Labour and are “not going to be taken for granted any more”.

Another Labour source said: “Starmer’s announcement on Palestine won’t win these voters back. They are too furious with him for that”, although they stressed that they believed Sir Keir was sincere about wanting to help bring the conflict to an end.

The real nightmare for Sir Keir will come if Mr Corbyn and left-wing former Labour MP Zarah Sultana press ahead with plans to create a new party, and either persuade left-wing independent candidates to join, or come to an agreement not to stand candidates against each other.

The new Corbyn-led party, which does not yet have a name, got off to a rocky start when it was launched on X by Ms Sultana, apparently before Mr Corbyn was ready. She also declared herself co-leader, even though it is unclear whether Mr Corbyn agreed to this.

But focus groups suggest Ms Sultana, the 31-year-old MP for Coventry South, could be an electoral asset – and is actually more popular with some left-wing voters than Mr Corbyn.

She has attacked Sir Keir for refusing to be more outspoken in his criticism of Israel and describes Labour as a “pro-genocide party”.

Some Labour insiders are urging Sir Keir to take a tougher approach to so-called pro-Gaza candidates, whether they stand as independents or for a new party.

One said: “They capitalised on the situation in Gaza in 2024 but their primary motive was to drive a wedge between Muslim voters and the rest of the country. It was an attempt to create a religious or race division.

“I felt in the last election Labour was running scared of some of them. Some of these people needed to be challenged on what they were saying.”

And If Mr Corbyn’s plan for a new party containing the independent MPs goes ahead as planned, Labour will highlight the discrepancy between what sources call the “socially conservative” views of some of these MPs and Mr Corbyn’s radical left-wing positions.