𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

There are years to run before Nigel Farage will get his shot at becoming prime minister but the Reform UK leader has already seized extraordinary power in this country. Labour is scrambling to look tough on asylum and Kemi Badenoch is trying to turn the Tories into champions of oil and gas. Reform UK has just four of the 650 MPs in Westminster but its mighty lead in the polls has transformed British politics.

The more the two traditional parties of power appear panicked by Mr Farage, the more credible he looks with millions of voters as a potential PM. This week’s Reform UK conference in Birmingham will give him yet another opportunity to set the agenda and present himself as the real Leader of the Opposition.

Political scientists will debate whether Mr Farage is a genius at picking up on topics which worry the public or whether his key skill is fuelling these concerns. But Sir Keir Starmer and Mrs Badenoch know they cannot ignore the issues which have powered Reform’s rise up the polls.

YouGov polling last month found 57% of people named immigration and asylum as one of the most important issues facing the country – more than for the economy (51%) or health (30%). Labour and Conservative MPs will hit back at any suggestion their leaders are dancing to Mr Farage’s tune each time they unveil ever-tougher policies. But the electoral survival of multitudes of MPs depends on stopping voters switching to Reform.

Party strategists will worry trying to “out-Farage Farage” is a direct route to electoral humiliation. Labour MPs will hope improvements in housing supply and on NHS waiting lists will win them credit with voters by the time of the next election; Conservatives are striving to restore their party’s reputation for economic competence.

But if the public believes Britain is fundamentally broken then many voters will be prepared to put the country under new management. Miserable growth figures and the failure of successive governments to end the small boats crisis compound the sense that Whitehall is malfunctioning.

Sir Keir Starmer’s latest reshuffle of top aides will be seen by many Britons as an admission he does not have a grip on Government. His ministers seem incapable of making a public statement without referring to a “plan for change” – but how many voters have a clue what this means?

In contrast, fans and foes alike of Mr Farage know what he will stands for and what he would attempt to do if handed real power.