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Millions more Britons will suffer in retirement if the safeguard against pensioner poverty known as the triple lock is scrapped, according to a shocking new analysis based on the Government’s own forecasts. Legions of workers today are on course for a major drop in income when they retire but the situation will be far worse if Chancellor Rachel Reeves bows to pressure and allows pensioners’ incomes to be whittled away.

Already, 14.6 million people of working age can expect a “sharp drop in their standard of living” when they retire, according to former pensions minister Sir Steve Webb. But if the abolition of the triple lock – which ensures the state pension rises by whichever is highest, 2.5%, inflation or the increase in average earnings – then the UK will face a new cost of living crisis.

If the state pension only increased in line with average earnings then 19 million people will fail to hit the target for a decent retirement. This means the average earner would receive less than two-thirds of their pre-retirement income when they stop working. And if the pension is only linked to inflation then 26.1 people million will be in this challenging situation.

Campaigners warn that older people are already “skipping meals or sitting in the dark to save money” and described the triple lock as a “lifeline”.

Sir Steve’s analysis found that scrapping the triple lock would have worrying implications for the worst-off in society. Today, 4.6 million people are not expected to have enough for even a “minimum” standard of living in retirement. This would be the case for six million if the pension is just linked to average earnings and would soar to 11.7 million if pegged to inflation.

Labour has committed to keep the triple lock “for the rest of this Parliament”. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has said the Tory policy is “to keep the triple lock” but campaigners will want cast iron guarantees at the next election that pensioners will be protected from poverty.

Sir Steve, now a partner at pension consultants LCP, is alarmed by rumours the Chancellor will seek to raise up to £2billion by cutting back on workplace “salary sacrifice” pension schemes when “under-saving” is already a major problem.

His analysis of how many Britons face a disappointing retirement without the triple lock is based on Government calculations obtained using the Freedom of Information Act.

He said: “These shocking figures reveal that the true state of under-saving for retirement in Britain is far greater than has previously been admitted. Very few people expect the triple lock to continue for another 50 years, yet this is the basis on which the Government has so far published estimates.

“If the triple lock were to be replaced by an earnings link, millions more people would face a sharp drop in their standard of living when they retire. And a prices link, as was the policy until 2010, would see around one in three of today’s workers set to retire short of even a bare ‘minimum’ standard of living.

“Against this backdrop, the Chancellor should be taking measures in the Budget to boost pension saving, not undermine it.”

His warning comes as Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been urged to scrap the triple lock as she scrambles to fill the “black hole” in the national finances ahead of next week’s Budget.

The Growth Commission think tank wants the state pension to be linked only to average earnings as part of a plan to cut Government spending by £105billion a year by 2030.

Shadow Chancellor Sir Mel Stride said: “Pensioners are already suffering from rising prices, with inflation having risen substantially since the election. The last thing they need is an attack on the triple lock just to fill a black hole of Labour’s own creation.

“If Labour had some backbone they would get the benefits bill under control and not be looking at scrapping the two child benefit cap.”

Caroline Abrahams of Age UK described the triple lock is “an essential source of income which has helped to improve the standard of living for pensioners”.

She said: “Today, it is more important than ever at a time when the cost of living and energy prices remain a struggle for so many, and these new figures show it has a vital part to play in enabling tomorrow’s pensioners to be able to live decently in retirement too.”

If it is scrapped, she warned, ”more older people would slip below the poverty line. “

Morgan Vine of Independent Age, said: “For older people already living in financial insecurity, the triple lock is a lifeline that helps protect the value of their often dangerously low income. Almost two million older people live in poverty, with another million on the brink.

“Every day, our helpline hears from people in later life who simply don’t have enough to cover the basics. They’re making heartbreaking decisions like skipping meals or sitting in the dark to save money.”

Warning against changing the triple lock, he said: “When older people are unable to afford the basics, pressure on health and social care services rises, creating higher costs for the state.”

Dennis Reed of the campaign group Silver Voices turned his guns on the Growth Commission for its attack on the triple lock.

He said: “Casual calls for the ending of the vital triple lock safeguard never focus on the real life impact this would have on pensioners on low and modest incomes. Millions of older people don’t feel that the cost of living crisis is over and are juggling with the day to day costs of heating their homes and having enough food to keep them healthy.”

He said recent increases in the state pensioner were “wiped out by hikes in council tax and utility bills,” adding: “These unaccountable think tanks should focus on the causes of rising pensioner poverty and misery, such as food and energy profiteering, rather than trying to squeeze the older generations even more.

“Growth will never follow from restrictions on household spending.”

A spokesperson for the Department for Work and Pensions said: “We are committed to the triple lock for the rest of this Parliament, and this means millions will see their yearly state pension rise by up to £1,900. For those who need extra support, pension credit – worth on average around £4,300 a year – is available with an additional 57,000 pensioner households receiving it last year when compared to the year before.

“Through our Pension Scheme’s Bill, the average earner could see their pension pot boosted by £29,000 and we have also revived the Pensions Commission to tackle the complex barriers stopping people from saving enough for retirement, helping to build a future-proof pensions system that is strong, fair and sustainable.”