𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

It’s happy new year for Reform UK. The first poll of 2026 – an electoral seat forecast from pollster More in Common – gives Nigel Farage’s party a huge Commons majority. More in Common’s poll surveyed 16,000 people and predicts Reform would have 381 MPs (it takes 326 to form a parliamentary majority) if a vote was held today.

Labour meanwhile would crash to just 85 MPs with the Conservatives on a paltry 70. On these findings, Farage would have no need for any pact with Tory leader Kemi Badenoch. But can it be all good news for Reform, especially when polls towards the end of 2025 found a ‘Badenoch bounce’ and a narrowing lead for Farage’s party?

Indeed, More in Common found Reform would win 60% of Commons seats on just 31% of the vote. Hardly a ringing endorsement (much as Labour won just over 400 seats on barely one-third of the vote).

Fragile and plateauing support aside, Reform faces a stabilising Tory vote, and – predictably, given such a small support base – the ever-present threat of tactical voting.

If, for example, 40% of Leftwing voters voted tactically, Reform would be deprived of a majority and likely need Tory support to govern. At 60% tactical voting, More in Common sees a Leftist coalition in power.

Much now hinges then on May’s local elections. Whether through incompetence or conspiracy, Labour’s decision to postpone local mayoral elections Reform was slated to win is a blow to Farage, though not fatal.

Indeed, Reform can – and likely will – make ‘deprivation of democracy’ a key theme in May. Farage’s party is still expected to do well as Labour becomes the party of university towns and multiethnic cities.

I’d wager Reform is not yet in the territory of needing a pact with the Tories. Such a deal could wound Reform as it seeks to differentiate itself from the woeful Conservatives.

When Farage says he wants to usurp the Tories, take him at his word.

Still, the fragility of Reform’s electoral base is an issue. Between now and May (and beyond) Reform needs to peel off around half of the remaining Tory vote to feel confident of victory and insulate itself from tactical voting.

Reform also has a coalition of previously-apathetic voters it must keep galvanised.

So long as immigration and crime top voter concerns, Reform has the edge. When it comes to the economy and cost of living however – and certainly the NHS – voters are less sure.

Competence and quality of team are critical from hereon in. Still, Reform starts the year with majorly good news. But Farage and co know the dirty tricks will worsen as local elections draw near.

Reform is perhaps at the end of the beginning. To be sure of victory however, it needs depth and breadth, quality and competence, both to win over Tories and apathetic voters. Roll on May.