𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

So much for ‘peak Farage’. We were told last year the ‘Badenoch bounce’ had the Conservatives back on track, yet polls conducted on New Year’s Eve and early Jan show support for Reform climbing again! Fresh after a seat projection poll by More in Common predicting Reform would have a hefty parliamentary majority of 381 MPs, Find Out Now and YouGov now reveal Reform’s support rising once more.

Find Out Now conducted its latest poll on the last day of 2025. Compared to their previous poll – taken one week earlier – Reform saw its lead rise by 2 points from 12 to 14. Reform, according to Find Out Now, is now on 31% versus 30%, with Labour rising by 1 point (14 to 15%) and the Tories down 1 (18 to 17%). The Greens hold steady and draw level with the Conservatives.

YouGov’s poll – conducted Jan 4-5 – shows Reform opening its lead from 5 back to 7. YouGov’s earlier poll, taken just before Christmas, had Reform on 25%. That rises to 26%. YouGov found the Tories held steady on 19% but Labour dropped 3 points to 17%.

The consistency between the two polls indicates that, if there was a Badenoch bounce, it was indeed short-lived. Whatever dirty tricks were employed against Farage in late 2025, the mud thrown isn’t sticking.

Who’d have thought voters remember how bad the border-destroying, high-taxing, crime-appeasing, Brexit-botching Tories actually were? Stands back in amazement!

2026 will now be make or break for Reform. Not just the all-important local elections but the need to widen its team and policies, keep its core support galvanised, and peel away more of what remains of Tory voters.

Only then can Farage be confident Reform is better insulated from the risk of tactic voting depriving him of a path to Number 10. Whatever else however, Reform starts the year with a bang. Peak Farage? Not likely.