𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Well, well, well, another day, another Reform UK press conference. And indeed another high-profile defection. Nigel Farage was in buoyant spirits once again today as he unveiled that former Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi is the latest name to cross the floor.

Mr Zahawi is a remarkable man and politician. A refugee who fled Baghdad with his parents to escape Saddam Hussein’s reign of terror. He quickly established a remarkable business empire through the polling firm YouGov, before switching to politics and climbing the greasy pole at an astonishing speed. Entering the Department for Education in Theresa May’s government, before being propelled into the limelight during the pandemic as the man largely responsible for rolling out the fastest vaccination programme of any country. This sent him flying upwards at breakneck speed, through the Cabinet Office, Secretary of State for Education, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, chairman of the Conservative Party, and – most notably – Chancellor of the Exchequer.

He’s a convincing performer, well spoken, knowledgeable, and – most importantly for Nigel Farage – his departure is a crushing blow to Kemi Badenoch.

While the Tories, naturally, dismissed the treacherous defector as a political “has-been”, Mr Zahawi claimed only some weeks ago he had been approached by Ms Badenoch seeking advice to help the party’s depressing performance in the polls.

He spoke convincingly of his conversion, of the desire to see Nigel Farage installed as the next Prime Minister, and the threat the country faces unless radical changes are brought in ASAP.

So why, given all of this – the CV, the performance, the news-grabbing moment all of us hacks in the room were hoping for – did it feel like the moment didn’t quite catch on fire?

There are clearly issues with any party accepting defections, because they naturally bring over baggage, regardless of how independently minded and rebellious they may have been during their parliamentary career.

If the defector succeeded in their career and managed to make it to government, while this might help your party appear more credible and serious, it also means that the individual will have been unable to voice criticism of official policies, and was bound by collective responsibility.

Naturally, therefore, this means most Tory-to-Reform defections have a credibility problem, given Reform’s current polling is largely thanks to the Tories’ dismal failure on everything from the economy to immigration.

All Tory defectors have to walk a tightrope. On the one hand, improve the mainstream credibility of the party, and persuade Tory voters who are on the fence to also make the jump. On the other, not appear the ‘new Tory party’.

All of this would be helped were Mr Farage to secure a high-profile Labour defection. He’s recently suggested that it may be in the pipeline, but we have yet to see it happen.

In the meantime we journalists can enjoy a good laugh about all the mean tweets Mr Zahawi’s posted about Mr Farage – until the Government shuts down X for good, that is.

This last point is less substantive. It’s fun, yes, but not something most voters will care too much about.

The key question Mr Farage needs to consider is how many Tories is too many, and will he ever close the floodgates.

Much like the country, there’s a big question to be asked about whether too many are entering Reform UK, and whether they can integrate properly in such large quantities.

I would suggest we’re approaching the limit, and Reform needs to start closing down its safe and legal defection routes.