𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

As many predicted, Manchester MP Andrew Gwynne has resigned and perhaps brought about the first big crisis of the year for both the PM and his challengers in Reform. Gwynne’s quitting Parliament opens the door for Manchester Mayor and would-be challenger to Sir Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham, to find a path to power.

Burnham is often touted as a replacement for the unpopular Labour leader and would need just 80 supporting MPs to challenge the PM. The fact this is eminently doable means Sir Keir could well use Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) to select a candidate other than Burnham. But would he succeed? After all, 14 of the 25 NEC seats are held by the Unions and they generally like Burnham. The NEC has many Starmer loyalists or at least many who have an interest in not pissing off Number 10.

Moreover, off the back of postponing local elections, even many Labour MPs would see it as a democratic outrage if Sir Keir and his allies intervened and blocked Burnham from standing.

To be fair, it would be no cakewalk for Burnham even if he was selected. Reform would mount a good challenge on the Right and the Greens on the Left. By some estimates, the Greens could win. But it remains likely that Labour would likely squeak through, especially with ‘King of the North’ Burnham as candidate.

That could be a colossal headache for Sir Keir, already eyeing possible leadership challenges from the likes of Health Secretary Wes Streeting.

But Nigel Farage has grounds for concern as well. Reform is climbing again in the polls (More in Common put Reform 10 points clear and Find Out Now 14 points in latest polls).

Nonetheless, Burnham is widely seen as the one Labour leader who could pull his party back from the brink. Farage benefits from an unpopular PM. Burnham could prove otherwise. Ditto Zack Polanski.

Still, the honeymoon for Burnham would likely be extremely short-lived. Labour’s open borders, soft on crime and small business-hating DNA would have gone nowhere.

Moreover, Burnham would no more ‘smash the gangs’ than Sir Keir. Nor would he realistically get tough on crime, bring entrepreneurs back home or make the most of Brexit.

Before we get there, this could be an almighty headache for the PM. Meanwhile Reform cannot ignore the possibility of a Prime Minister Burnham improving Labour’s polling enough to at least allow the party to govern in a future Leftist coalition (gulp!). Whatever else, feathers will certainly be spitting in Holborn this weekend.