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Britons should wake up to the threat that the United Kingdom could break apart, First Minister of Wales Eluned Morgan has warned as fears in Labour circles mount that pro-independence Plaid Cymru will take power this year. The warning comes as Labour’s woeful polling fuels expectations that Sir Keir Starmer could face a leadership challenge.

When asked whether Sir Keir will be no longer Prime Minister by the end of the year, First Minister Ms Morgan said: “That will be a decision for the parliamentary group. But I do think there will be pressure on the prime minister inevitably if Labour performs badly.”

And when asked if we could see the break-up of the UK, she told Sky News’s Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips: “I think there’s a real possibility of that. I think it’s time people woke up to that as a possibility.

“The elections in May could have profound implications, not just for the people of Wales and their public services, but also for the situation in the whole of the United Kingdom. The danger is real.”

Senior Welsh Labour figures have warned against trying to oust Sir Keir before the May elections to the Welsh and Scottish parliaments and English councils, fearing this could make the situation worse.

YouGov polling this month for the election to the Senedd in Cardiff Bay put Plaid in first place on 37%, ahead of Reform UK (23%), the Greens (13%), the Conservatives and Labour (both on 10%) and the Liberal Democrats (5%).

One Labour veteran told the Sunday Express: “Although things look bad for Welsh Labour at the moment, there is huge volatility amongst voters. It would be wrong to think that a change of the UK Leader before the Senedd election would mean an improvement in Welsh Labour’s fortunes.

“There could well be big internal arguments and this would only make Welsh Labour’s position even worse. Party members need to unite and take the contest to our opponents; people need to realise that a Plaid/Green coalition would take us down the road of ‘independence’ which would be a disaster for Wales, and Reform have no real interest in Wales, seeing May’s election as a mere springboard for the general election.”

A senior Welsh Labour figure dismissed any suggestion that a run at the top job by Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham could rescue the party’s fortunes in a nation where it has been the been the biggest party in every general election for more than a century, saying: “It would be too late to save us”.