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The controversy engulfing Sir Keir Starmer over Lord Mandelson’s links to Jeffrey Epstein bears uncomfortable similarities to the scandal that felled Boris Johnson, a leading pollster has warned. Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, drew parallels with the Chris Pincher affair that contributed to Mr Johnson’s downfall in 2022.

Sir John said: “It is not an exact parallel, but it is uncomfortably close—similarities between the current controversy and that surrounding Chris Pincher and Boris Johnson, which eventually brought Johnson down.” He highlighted doubts among MPs about the Prime Minister’s judgement, akin to those following Mr Johnson’s Partygate scandal. Sir John noted: “The parallel is that you are talking about a Prime Minister about whom doubts exist amongst the MPs; that was true about Johnson following ‘Partygate.'”

Sir John added: “At the same time, it is certainly raising questions about their judgment vis-à-vis individuals. Now, I grant you, in the case of Starmer, nobody is suggesting dishonesty, but they are suggesting maybe, you know, not appreciating the risk that he was taking.”

The row intensified after US court documents from the Epstein Files revealed Lord Mandelson’s deeper ties to the convicted paedophile. These included allegations of sharing market-sensitive information in 2009 while serving as business secretary under Gordon Brown.

Lord Mandelson, appointed UK ambassador to the US by Sir Keir in 2024, was sacked in September 2025 amid the revelations. He has since resigned from the Labour Party and the House of Lords.

Sir Keir admitted in the Commons that he knew of Lord Mandelson’s ongoing friendship with Epstein when making the appointment, but insisted the peer “lied repeatedly” about its extent. Downing Street vowed to publish documents showing the “lies” after MPs passed a Tory motion compelling their release.

However, a minister confirmed the material would not be disclosed immediately, following a Metropolitan Police request to avoid undermining their investigation. Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle asserted the Met had “no jurisdiction” over Parliament.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch pressed Sir Keir during Prime Minister’s Questions. Sir John referenced the exchange, noting: “Badenoch forced him to admit he knew that Peter Mandelson had a relationship with Epstein. She is obviously trying to argue that the relationship was much deeper than was at that stage publicly known.”

Under pressure from Labour MPs, including former deputy leader Angela Rayner, Sir Keir backed down from initial plans for Cabinet Secretary Sir Chris Wormald to redact sensitive documents. Instead, Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee will decide on releases related to national security.

Sir John was uncertain as to whether Sir Keir could recover, calling it “the £64,000 question.” He warned the scandal would erode backbench support, stating: “It is clearly not unreasonable to feel that there is a question mark about Keir Starmer’s future as Prime Minister.”

Beyond survival, Sir John doubted Sir Keir’s capacity to reverse Labour’s fortunes by 2029. He cited economic recovery and NHS waiting lists as pivotal, but stressed a deeper flaw. Sir John said: “Starmer doesn’t provide his party or the country with any sense of direction. It is the fact that he hasn’t been able to do ‘the vision thing.'”

He described Sir Keir as a “technocrat” lacking prime ministerial gravitas. Sir John stated: “He’s somebody who thinks that there are problems to be solved, and he just doesn’t seem to get the need to be able to give the public a sense of someone who is ‘prime ministerial’.”

With Labour’s polls worsening, Sir John flagged the reaction of Labour voters as the “crucial thing.” Sir John asked: “Do people who voted for Starmer, you know, 18 months ago—do they question his story?”

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has since urged the European Anti-Fraud Office to investigate Lord Mandelson’s time as EU trade commissioner. The Prime Minister’s office maintains Lord Mandelson’s actions were “unforgivable,” but the episode has fuelled intense internal Labour unrest.