𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Nigel Farage is shortly going to unveil Robert Jenrick as his Shadow Chancellor, finally answering the question of who would enter No. 11 should Reform win the next election. The pick is very much like Farage’s other decisions: bold, conservative, surprising, and obvious – all at the same time.

Robert Jenrick has long been floated as a potential Shadow Chancellor, even months before he actually defected from the Tories. Indeed many in SW1 thought that the chaotic nature of his defection – being ousted by Kemi Badenoch before he had the chance to surprise her – meant he had lost his strongest negotiating hand with which he would secure the top Reform UK position. But Farage has given it to him anyway. Why? Because it’s the canniest decision he could make.

Reform UK is already trusted by many voters to deliver on stopping both mass legal, and illegal, migration.

But Farage’s biggest Achilles heel, still, is credibility with the financial markets.

Even those who want Mr Farage to succeed remain constantly fearful that the sentient modern religion of global commerce in the City of London will ‘do a Truss’: namely, panic, cause a borrowing crisis, and threaten to bring down Britons’ entire way of life unless Mr Farage gives in to their anti-radical, centrist demands.

Mr Farage is clearly fearful of this too, and that’s why he’s picked Robert Jenrick as his shadow chancellor.

While many Reform ultras remain distrustful of Tory MP defectors – even hateful towards them – that is exactly why Mr Jenrick has the best opportunity to succeed in calming market fears about a Farage government.

Among all of the recent Tory defectors, he has spent by far the longest at the top of government.

He’s also previously served as a Treasury minister, under Theresa May, and run one of the most wide-reaching government departments of Housing, Communities and Local Government for over two years under Boris Johnson.

He is also, crucially, not a ‘Trussite’. Mr Jenrick supported Rishi Sunak to be Prime Minister, and while this is not something he often brings up in public these days, I imagine he will frequently point it out during meetings in the City over the coming years.

He has also criticised Kemi Badenoch for refusing to kick Ms Truss out of the Tory Party for her “careless” and “un-conservative” mini-budget.

It proves he has an economic temperament and opposes ideological radicalism.

It also matches Mr Farage’s own change of heart on the economy in recent months. Gone are the unaffordable and outlandish pledges about vast tax cuts; instead, he warns he will not put the cart before the horse, and cuts must be made to fund any cuts to taxation.

While the pick is clever, and will serve the party well, it’s not ideal.

Taking a look through Mr Jenrick’s Telegraph columns suggests the two are not quite ideological soulmates regarding the country’s finances.

In May last year Mr Jenrick penned a piece entitled: “Farage is wrong about the two-child benefit cap. We must keep it.”

It was accompanied by a cartoon of Mr Farage slowly morphing into Jeremy Corbyn, and Mr Jenrick criticised the party for being “locked in a bidding war [with Labour] to spend more in handouts.”

To succeed, Robert Jenrick must smooth these tensions, build a properly thought-out and fully-funded tax and spend plan, and stop the constant pirouetting on welfare issues.

If he does this by 2028, he could well be walking through the No. 11 black door.