𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

The Gorton and Denton by-election was a disaster for Labour and Sir Keir Starmer. But Reform, and leader Nigel Farage, should also be worried – because the stunning victory for the Green Party shows that left-wing insurgents a threat to Reform too. We all know about the meteoric rise of Mr Farage’s team. They’ve been the clear leader in opinion polls since April last year, and Mr Farage has assembled an impressive front bench “shadow cabinet”. But there’s evidence that Reform’s momentum has stalled.

Polling suggests their support may be falling slightly, from a high of around 30%. And recent by-election results will be worrying the inhabitants of Reform’s flash new Westminster HQ. The party had high hopes of winning in Gorton and Denton. But Reform got 28.7% of the vote in the Greater Manchester seat, while the victorious Greens got 40.7%.

It follows disappointment for Mr Farage in the Caerphilly by-election for the Welsh Parliament, where Reform pledged to “throw everything” at the campaign but lost to nationalists Plaid Cymru.

In both cases, Labour suffered humiliating defeats in previously-safe seats. But Mr Farage did not benefit.

Reform’s rise is driven largely by a belief that the traditional major parties are broken beyond repair. The last Tory government ended in chaos. The current Labour government is even worse than its opponents expected.

So a lot of people are thinking they will try something new – even if it’s a gamble.

But Reform’s problem is that voters have more than once choice. Mr Farage and his team are one option, but others include the Greens.

It means that Reform, despite being a right-wing party, is actually competing with left-wing parties, including the Greens, for support.

There are plenty of people who used to vote Labour and would never vote Conservative because they come from families, or entire communities, that have traditionally hated the Tories.

But the same taboo about supporting Reform doesn’t exist. So these voters could switch to Reform – but they might also switch to the Greens.

How does Nigel Farage counter this?

He’s actually making a good start. Far from being fanatical about the free market, Reform say they are willing to intervene to protect important industries such as steel or carmakers.

He could also offer a little more support to lower-income families in some of those northern and Midland seats where voters may desert Labour – and this is something he’s already talking about.

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Mr Farage’s plan to end the two child benefit cap (which would help many working families as well as the unemployed) has been blocked by his treasury spokesman, Robert Jenrick. But Reform is expected to announce other measures, such as more free childcare.

The Reform leader should also steal a recent Tory policy announcement, and do something about student tuition fees – which are not really student fees at all, but a tax on working graduates.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has vowed to make changes that would cut payments for many graduates.

This is an issue many younger, well-educated voters care deeply about, because they are the ones paying. And they are also the type of people most attracted to the Green Party.

Mr Farage will never be able to match Green leader Zack Polanski on “liberal” issues such as legalising drugs, even if he wanted to, and he’s not going to join the Greens in demonising Israel.

But if he can convince Green supporters they will be financially better off under Reform, he may find support for his party starts rising again.