𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Like old oak trees in urban areas, some things stay the same while everything around them changes.

The Premier League is fast-moving and transient, yet Aston Villa’s squad feels in a fixed state.

Eight of Villa’s starting XI against Chelsea in their most recent game last Wednesday were at the club in 2021 under then manager Dean Smith, never mind his successor, Steven Gerrard, or the current boss, Unai Emery. Players continue to arrive and leave, yet those characters of seeming permanence remain regardless of the speculation on their futures.

Three of the four starting forwards that night had been, at one stage or another over the past 14 months, edging towards an exit only for Villa’s apparent centripetal force to drag them back in.

Emiliano Buendia was loaned to Bayer Leverkusen in January 2025 for the remainder of that season. The Bundesliga side had an option to buy, signalling Villa’s intention to discard the attacking midfielder. Buendia toiled for regular minutes and Leverkusen, unsurprisingly, decided against making the purchase.

Though that door closed, Villa assumed Buendia would move somewhere last summer. Even if pre-season form was promising and manager Emery was starting to change his stance on the now 29-year-old Argentina international, Villa were still dangling him for potential suitors in the final days before that window closed in early September.

They wanted Leon Bailey gone, too. Saudi Arabian clubs were interested, but the Jamaica winger did not want to leave permanently owing to his desire to stay in Europe’s top leagues and his reluctance to break a lucrative contract that runs until 2027 and includes an option of a further year. Discussions with Roma of Italy over an initial loan deal with an obligation to buy became just an option to make the move permanent, but Villa were relatively content — Roma were covering Bailey’s full salary and amortisation, which helped alleviate financial concerns.

Roma did not have a break clause in January in that initial agreement, but were soon pushing to create one. The 28-year-old suffered an injury in his first training session, ruling him out of the season’s first six Serie A matches. One muscle issue after another followed, though Roma did not want to admit to Bailey that they were keen to send him back.

Arsenal offered £40million for Ollie Watkins in January last year, with the money to be paid in six instalments. Villa were not totally opposed to a sale and would likely have authorised a package more favourable to them had it not been for his fellow striker Jhon Duran kicking up a fuss in the same month and eventually joining Al Nassr of Saudi Arabia for an initial €77million (£67m/$89.5m at the current rates) before that window closed.

Recent weeks have shown that Emery remains fond of Watkins and is determined to keep playing the 30-year-old England international through a rut in form. In the cases of Bailey and Buendia, however, they were not deemed good enough for Villa midway through last season.

When Villa went all-in on pursuing Champions League qualification and signed five players in January last year, those two were cast aside. Emery felt Buendia should make that move to Germany, while Bailey was barely used and struggled to even make the bench.

Fast-forward to this past Wednesday, however, and both were starting a critical Premier League fixture against Chelsea, fellow Champions League contenders.

Chelsea have spent more than a billion pounds in the previous four years shaping and reshaping the squad, with their margin for error, in recruitment anyway, evidently greater than what Villa are allowed. Bailey and Buendia are representative of the club’s wrangling with financial restrictions and how doing so has checked the evolution of Emery’s squad.

Conversely, on the occasions they have spent money, the recruitment record is patchy.

Villa have not signed a player to improve Emery’s strongest line-up since Morgan Rogers’ arrival in January 2024. Swinging and missing regularly in the market has squandered what they have spent and limited their capacity to generate value from incomings. Evann Guessand, signed last summer, left in the winter window, joining Crystal Palace on loan with Bailey his replacement in the squad.

If Bailey being back in favour underlined Emery reverting to his tried and trusted, the growing sense that Villa have moved past him and Buendia lingers.

Emi Buendia’s Villa career appeared over in January last year when he got sent out on loan, yet he has started their past eight league games (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Buendia made some telling contributions earlier in the season and, to his credit, his renaissance and willingness to stay — having rejected interest from other clubs — was highly admirable. Regardless, now well into season four of the Emery project, Villa would surely have hoped to be at a more advanced stage than this in terms of player calibre.

Buendia has started the past eight league matches. Consider it harsh, perhaps, but the explanation of why is more an indictment of Emery’s paucity of alternatives in light of John McGinn and Youri Tielemans’ unavailability through injury.

Entering the final year of his contract this summer, Buendia would like to renew. He was instrumental to Villa’s early-season success and characterised their catalogue of goals scored from distance. However, with Emery’s system malfunctioning more recently, he has looked like a jagged edge in what the manager wants to be a smooth, well-oiled machine.

It is going to be a big few months for Buendia and Bailey.

Multiple sources, speaking on the condition of anonymity, believe Villa will sign a right-winger in the summer. Fulham’s Harry Wilson is of interest, but at this stage recent speculation stems from the player’s camp being keen to explore and increase their options.

This would directly impact Bailey. In an ideal world less dominated by PSR (profitability and sustainability rules), Emery would not have brought him back from Italy in January. He basically admitted this himself, insisting a fortnight before it happened that the player “must be kept in Rome”. It was following the injury to McGinn against Everton on January 18 and conversations with Bailey that Emery rowed back.

“It was not our idea to recover him to play with us here,” Emery told reporters last month, “but we decided (to) because some circumstances helped us make the decision, and now he is completely committed to us. He wanted to come back, be in our training sessions, with his team-mates, the coaches and the manager. I want him to add his numbers to us, scoring goals, assists and playing tactically as we need.”

Emery has given Bailey ample opportunity to recover the form shown in his magnum-opus year of 2023, when the former Bayer Leverkusen winger was dynamic, direct, and so sharp that he convinced Villa to offer him a long-term contract and to instead part with Moussa Diaby.

The subsequent nosedive was unforeseen.

One goal in 24 league appearances last season, exacerbated by a returning predictability in his play, cutting on to his stronger left foot before being tackled, was alarming. Yet it pains Emery when he is unable to rehabilitate a player. He would rather give somebody too many chances than one too few. Before loaning him to Roma, the Spaniard was open to trying again, but deep down knew that Bailey was better served in departing.

Team-mates have noted how the best version of Bailey would help their own game. He could occupy two defenders, leaving space somewhere else, and the natural width he offers is crucial in Emery’s narrow system, which is why his decline is sharply discernible.

In his 150th Villa appearance, the 1-1 home draw with Leeds late last month, Bailey looked forlorn. After another failed dribble provoked the loudest groan inside Villa Park, Bailey did not wait for the fourth official to raise his board just past the hour — he started walking off the pitch, knowing he was being replaced.

Bailey’s post-Roma recall had been a surprise, even though it was the outcome he wanted over the winter. Sources close to the player speak of his determination and love for football returning. His body-fat percentage is down and, psychologically, Bailey has learnt the game is inherently fickle — it does not take long for perceptions of you to change.

Regrettably, his current form is an extension of last season and, so far, has not changed widespread opinion that his time in claret and blue should soon be up.

Sources at Villa frequently discuss how, while there may be differing viewpoints compared to Emery on various players, he is a game-changing coach who has, according to one figure, “a habit of improving them”. But there comes a point when an individual’s ceiling can only be raised so high.

From now until the end of the season, those questions on Bailey and Buendia, specifically, will be answered indefinitely.

This is why squads need to evolve — as Villa know but have so far been unable to implement, owing to recruitment and financial restrictions. It has contributed to their evolution under Emery not being as far along as they would wish.