𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

It’s hard to recall a previous occasion when critics of the British government’s defence policies have been quite so vociferous. It has happened before of course, for example during the so-called ‘Options for Change’ initiative during the restructuring of Britain’s armed forces at the end of the Cold War – part of the ‘peace dividend’. The UK was hardly alone in drawing down its armed forces as many other western nations followed suit. While the restructuring was criticised by many politicians and commentators at the time, it went ahead anyway.

The promise of being able to reallocate spending from defence to other areas of government proved irresistible. We all now know the long term result; Britain’s armed services cut to the bone after decades of underinvestment, RN ships tied up in dock for lack of crews, army battalions short of soldiers and vital equipment, and RAF jets without sufficient trained pilots to fly them. These have made the UK’s commitments to NATO sound increasingly hollow.

Now the chickens have come home to roost. In the new turbulent times in which we find ourselves, with a long war in Ukraine and renewed conflict in the Middle East, Britain’s armed forces are finding it nigh impossible to answer the call.

Tragically, what we can offer our friends and allies is pathetically limited. Notwithstanding Sir Keir Starmer’s initial unwillingness to allow the US to use British bases at RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia for strikes against Iran – a stance now rowed back on with some weasel-wording about “use for defence purposes only”, his hand has been forced.

The drone attacks against the British base at Akrotiri in Cyprus demanded action from the UK government, but just how bare the defence cupboard is has been dramatically highlighted.

Of our two (out of six) T45 destroyers which are nominally operationally available, one – HMS Dragon – is to be sent to help protect British interests, but it is likely to languish in port being preparing for deployment for another week.

Why? Well, it is hard to see sometimes through the obfuscation thrown up by the MoD and government, but it seems to be a combination of factors.

First, Dragon’s recent refit was predicated on it being utilised as part of the Royal Navy’s focus on countering Russian expansionism in the High North. The Cyprus mission may well require a different weapons fit. Will this include a much needed capability to counter ballistic missiles? Nobody’s telling.

Second, and depending on who you believe, allegations of work-to-rule by civilian workers at the dockyard where Dragon is being prepared have been made; instead of the 24/7 activity that the situation demands, normal 9-5 working hours and a ban on overtime may have been instituted. Both the MoD and representatives of the workforce deny this vehemently.

The third, and I think real, reason that Britain’s response to the attacks on Cyprus has been so anaemic is that Starmer and his government proved unable to read the runes. It was clear and obvious from the US military build up in the region that an attack on Iran was imminent, and yet he chose to ignore the advice of senior military figures to station additional assets there in a classic example of cognitive dissonance.

The UK government chose to avoid confronting the realpolitik of the situation in a wilful dereliction of duty, and now is scrambling to catch up. Britain’s immediate future in defence terms looks bleak also.

While the government has made various pledges to increase defence spending in terms of GDP percentages, the real truth is stark. The UK allegedly currently spends roughly 2.3% of GDP on defence, but that includes the independent nuclear deterrent and service pensions. When those are stripped out the defence budget may be as low as 1.4% of GDP.

It also appears that while other allies are greatly accelerating defence spending in the face of continued Russian aggression, significant Labour plans to boost defence are not expected until the next Parliament, whenever that might be.

Plus MoD forecasts also show defence expenditure in 2027-28 is set to fall as a share of GDP, in stark contrast to the ramped-up spending of other NATO allies.

It’s just not good enough, really it isn’t. We can’t defend our citizens and national interests at the moment, and we are unlikely to be able to do so in the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, as I have said oftentimes before, Britain’s welfare budget is six times that of its defence budget. Something has to give. Government spending priorities need to change, pronto.

Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk