𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

March Madness isn’t just one tournament. In fact, women’s college basketball has been on the rise and the top of the sport is extremely good. And just like the men, brackets aren’t the only way to enjoy the tournament, as sportsbooks have every women’s game as well. So it’s time to fire up the College Basketball Projection Model for the women and see if there is any value on the board before the first round gets underway.

First, the tournament formats are slightly different. And that small difference is that the first two rounds are played at the home arenas of the Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 4 seeds in each region. So any top-four seed that’s playing in the first two rounds will be playing at home in front of their fans. That must be accounted for. This also makes upsets a little less likely. Not only is the top of the sport stronger than the middle compared to the men, but adding a home-court advantage for the best teams makes it even tougher.

That’s all taken into account by my model, but I just wanted to make a note if you’re wondering why some of these games have such large spreads.

We have a pretty big card for the first round, so let’s get after it. As always, shop around for the best price, and good luck to us!

Women’s March Madness first-round best bets

Baylor moneyline (+104) vs. Nebraska

Wrong team favored! Yes, Baylor as a No. 6 seed is an underdog here. Maybe No. 11 Nebraska will benefit from playing a game earlier this week in the First Four, but I see some matchup problems for the Cornhuskers. Most importantly, their 2-point defense is bad, which should give Baylor something to exploit. Baylor isn’t a dominant two-point team or anything, but Nebraska is so poor that this shouldn’t be hard to exploit. The second advantage that I like is that Nebraska is one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the country, but Baylor is even better at defending them. With an advantage to get the offense going, I think Baylor should have enough on the defensive end to advance.

Worst price to bet: Baylor moneyline (-110)

Tennessee moneyline (+102) vs. NC State

Again, wrong team favored! This time, I’m going to be on the side of the worse seed, as I think No. 10 Tennessee should be short favorites here. No. 7 NC State has a weird profile, as they don’t shoot a ton of 3s, but they also don’t get to the free-throw line very often. Tennessee is usually very good at defending the 3-point line and not allowing opposing teams to get shots up, so that matchup will be interesting. But this game is going to come down to whether Tennessee can turn NC State over — the Wolfpack are very good at taking care of the basketball — and whether Tennessee can crash the offensive glass. My projections think the Volunteers will have more success on the offensive glass than one might think, which sways this line to them being the favorites.

Worst price to bet: Tennessee moneyline (-105)

Oklahoma vs. Idaho under 158.5 (-112)

Admittedly, I’m terrified of this play. Oklahoma and Idaho both play at blazing speeds, which always leads to the possibility of a game going over. But both teams are very good at rebounding, offensively and defensively. That gives me some hope that this game can slow down, as both teams have height and can end possessions with defensive rebounding. Another aspect of this matchup that I like is that neither team relies on turnovers, which means we shouldn’t see a ton of easy points off turnovers. I’m not holding my breath here as the pace could make this a loser early, but my model has this pegged for the low 150s, and I could see Idaho struggling to score.

Worst price to bet: Under 157.5 (-110)

James Madison +16.5 (-114) vs. Kentucky

On one hand, James Madison played Texas earlier in the year and lost by 40. On the other hand, they played Notre Dame tough in a 13-point loss at home. So, what to do here? Well, I’ll give them a shot because I think they do kind of match up well here. Kentucky is not a team that will turn you over on defense, so that shouldn’t be a problem we have to worry about. Kentucky is a good rebounding team, but so is James Madison, so that advantage shouldn’t be drastic. I have plenty of concerns about Kentucky’s height advantage here, and that’s where I think we could see a drastic advantage on the glass for the Wildcats. But if James Madison doesn’t get overwhelmed, they should be able to stay within this number on a neutral court.

Worst price to bet: James Madison +16 (-110)

USC -5.5 (-106) vs. Clemson

I think USC has the two best players in this game, and I think there is an argument that they could have the three best. There aren’t any drastic matchup advantages here, but I just don’t think these two teams are in the same class. If you go by record, yes, Clemson looks like the better team, but the Big Ten was much stronger than the ACC this year, and we know that record doesn’t mean much here. My number is closer to double digits here as I’m taking the team with the best players in the game.

Worst price to bet: USC -6 (-110)