𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

This was always going to be an almighty ruck.

A source in the Conservative Party, ironically, first alerted me to the growing mutiny over Shabana Mahmood’s immigration reforms.

They pointed to a Westminster Hall debate in September, where left-wing MP after left-wing MP described changes to the qualifying period for indefinite leave to remain as “cruel”, “punitive” and “unfair”.

And the group of troublemakers, for Keir Starmer at least, warned voters could turn their backs on Labour if they cracked down on migration.

Migrants from Commonwealth countries “and their British national family members and friends will have views on these issues. We should take note of that”, Bell Ribeiro-Addy warned.

But Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has repeatedly doubled down on her plans, warning rebels that a failure to act will open the door to something worse.

And she claimed that the record number of arrivals over the past five years could blow a £10 billion hole in the nation’s finances.

Yet, this hasn’t deterred the Labour Left – and their union backers – from trying to demand concessions. I’d expect this to intensify, particularly after the local elections if Labour suffers a ballot box drubbing.

They are contesting the Home Secretary’s settlement plans, arguing it is unfair to double the qualifying period from five to ten years.

Rival factions within the Labour Party are trading blows after taking political calculations.

Allies of Keir Starmer and Shabana Mahmood argue the Government can’t afford not to make changes. Left-wing MPs claim they can’t afford to.

Folkestone and Hythe MP Tony Vaughan, who sent a letter signed by 100 colleagues to the Home Secretary expressing opposition to the changes, indicated as much.

He said: “If people can get settlement in five years – as they can in major EU economies, as they can in Canada and Australia – why would they come here. That is not going to help the British public.”

And the group is planning to use arcane Parliamentary procedures to force a symbolic vote on the Government’s migration plans. Either way, this will now be hugely embarrassing for Keir Starmer and Shabana Mahmood.

The Tories, perhaps seizing an opportunity, said they would vote for it. Make no mistake, that is deeply politically damaging for the Labour leadership as well. It will weaken them in the eyes of their backbenchers even more.

Don’t forget, of course, this is against a backdrop of a record number of arrivals.

The public has been crying out for greater control of our borders.

Yet now Labour is tearing itself apart while a ticking time bomb edges ever closer.

Policy wonks have warned the record number of arrivals over the past five years could cost taxpayers £200bn over their lifetimes.

The Home Office has predicted a staggering 1.6 million people will receive indefinite leave to remain in the coming years.

And, in fairness, Shabana Mahmood didn’t hide away from the looming disaster.

She told MPs: “At the point of settlement all those individuals will be able to access social housing and the welfare state. Because of the lower-skilled nature of many of these people in terms of their salary expectations, you can expect that there will be a correlation between those numbers and those who, having achieved settled status, may require assistance from the state, if we do not change the rules.”

When it comes to immigration, voters have totally lost patience.

They’ve been repeatedly told it will be cut.

But the failure to do so in the past (numbers are finally beginning to fall) is leading to demands to protect families from the impacts of mass migration in the first part of this decade.

If Labour wants to have any chance of staying in power, it will have to stop tearing itself over migration.

Otherwise the left-wing MPs in that debate in September will be right.

Voters will turn their backs on them.

But it will be because of them.

And the meantime that ticking timebomb will have likely gone off, causing untold damage to the UK economy.