𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Senior Labour figures are privately bracing for a catastrophic set of local election results on May 7 that could trigger a leadership crisis for Sir Keir Starmer, despite public displays of unity and the Prime Minister’s determination to fight on. Health Secretary Wes Streeting publicly urged patience this week, telling The Guardian he did not want to see the Prime Minister challenged. Mr Streeting said: “I don’t want to see Keir challenged in May. I don’t think that will happen. Give the guy a chance.”

However behind the scenes, tensions are simmering. One of Mr Streeting’s allies accidentally sent a WhatsApp message to Alan Lockey, Sir Keir’s speechwriter, asking if he would help with a potential Streeting leadership campaign, reported The Times. The sender was mortified, but the incident has fuelled suspicions in Downing Street that protestations of loyalty may be thinner than they appear. Mr Streeting’s team denies any disloyalty.

In London, the threat is existential. Labour has diverted resources to defend central boroughs like Camden, Hackney, and Lambeth against a Green surge. One minister described a bad night in the capital as potentially “existential” for the party. Projections suggest heavy losses, with Reform eating into northern territory and the Greens advancing in urban areas.

Compounding the gloom is a cost-of-living crisis exacerbated by the Middle East conflict. Economists forecast inflation rising to 4 per cent, with energy bills potentially increasing by £300 this summer. Petrol prices have hit 150p per litre, while fears grow of fuel shortages linked to the Strait of Hormuz.

Next week the Government will roll out frozen rail fares and pension rises, but ministers fear these will be overshadowed by economic turmoil. Rivals are already manoeuvring. Angela Rayner has warned that Labour is “running out of time” and is launching a podcast, Beyond the Bubble.

To complicate any challenge, the King’s Speech is scheduled for May 13. This means Parliament will be prorogued when results land, making it harder to gather the 80 signatures needed to trigger a contest. Sir Keir has insisted he will not step down. Sir Keir said: “The road ahead will be bumpy, but I mostly keep my frustrations private.”

Even loyalists accept the premiership is entering its most dangerous phase. The coming weeks will test whether Sir Keir’s “good war” can outweigh the gathering economic and electoral storm.

Sir Keir himself appears increasingly optimistic about surviving the immediate threat. Allies point to his handling of the Iran conflict — specifically his refusal to join the initial US offensive and his firm stance against pressure from President Trump — as a potential lifeline.

A YouGov poll for The Times found that 30 per cent of voters trusted Sir Keir most to deal with the conflict, ahead of Nigel Farage on 22 per cent and Kemi Badenoch on 19 per cent. The proportion of voters who believe he should resign has fallen to 42 per cent, with a fifth saying his approach to the war improved their view of him.

Sir Keir’s “Hugh Grant” moment, in which he declared he would not waver under personal jibes from Mr Trump, has been well received by Labour MPs. Sir Keir said: “I am the British Prime Minister and my job is to be absolutely focused on what is in the national interest.”

However, the Prime Minister’s position remains precarious. Leaked internal MRP polling paints an apocalyptic picture for 7 May. Labour is projected to lose every one of the 50 seats it holds in Sunderland — a stronghold including the constituency of Bridget Phillipson — to Reform UK. Nigel Farage declared: “The elections are a referendum on Starmer.”