𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

South East London has long been seen as a rock-solid Conservative council stronghold, and was even touted as the party’s flagship council following the loss of the London “crown jewels” in 2022. But now it could be under threat from an insurgent Reform UK intent on taking the area by storm, with Nigel Farage’s party throwing the kitchen sink at these true-blue seats.

Bexley, a borough of some 256,000 people, saw the Tories maintain their vice-like grip on the local authority in the last round of elections, sweeping 34 of the 45 available seats. Now the Tories admit they’re concerned they could lose control, with team Teale threatening to hoover up votes across the borough.

Out and about with Farage, who made the borough his first visit in his campaign to take London this May, it’s clear to see why they might be worried. His reception on Welling High Street, itself in the heart of the ward they are seeking to capture, affords him near-on superstar status.

Yet elsewhere, in the south of the borough where the Tories hold everything from the council to the parliamentary seat, voters are perhaps a little more reserved in their affections. One man, speaking on Sidcup High Street, who asks not to be named, tells me he’s “sticking Tory”. “I don’t think Farage has much of a clue about local councils,” he says, informing me he has voted Conservative his entire life.

That message – seeking to hammer home a perception that Reform is not ready for power – is one the Tories are keen to drive in. “It’s clear that Reform has no plan for how to improve Bexley,” the local MP, Louie French, tells me. “They are embarrassed by politicians in London who broke their promises and voted with Sadiq Khan to build on our green spaces.”

French has been keen to reference the vote, which saw a Reform assembly member fail to back a motion to protect the green belt. “Bexley is a well-run Conservative area, which has a strong track record of putting our community first,” he adds. “The real risk for Bexley residents […] is that Reform splits the Conservative vote and Labour win by accident.”

For Farage, speaking to me over a beer in the local Welling watering hole, the two decades of uninterrupted Tory control have made them “somewhat complacent.” Social care, the costs of which are imposed on local authorities, are an “imposition” he blasts, despairing that he “can’t wave a magic wand” and fix it.

He warns that “if people don’t vote Reform, the Conservatives hold on and it’ll carry on as it is.” Unsurprisingly he dismisses accusations that his party isn’t equipped to govern. The problems are “massive […] we can’t change them by winning Bexley council.”

Farage is keen to defend his party’s record, saying that “there are ten councils up and down the country in which we’re in majority control, and by the end of year one, our council tax rises were lower than comparable councils being led by other parties. We will look after your money.”

Yet at a local level the pitch seems more general, with the party’s local deputy Miles Jones focusing his campaign on cutting council waste and a complete audit of the authority’s finances.

Aside from that the policies are less specific, seemingly leaning more into disaffection with the “old parties”, and hoping voters back a third approach. It isn’t just the Tories who fear the rise of Reform, and what it might do to local politics. For Labour, who hold a rump of seats in the more diverse northern end of the borough, Farage and Reform pose an existential threat to how they feel local politics should be done.

Councillor Anna Day says “diversity is to be welcomed” in Bexley, pointing to what she says is years of work spent on bringing communities together in her ward of Slade Green and North End. She’s co-councillor with Stefano Borella, the Labour Group Leader. Borella has been campaigning for more social housing, affordable homes and a closer look at some of the day-to-day services on offer by the council for years.

For him it’s about the bread-and-butter local services, getting potholes fixed, making the pavements safer. Quietly, Labour are not confident they are entirely safe in their normally “safe” northern seats.

“There’s no such thing as a safe seat where we’re involved,” one Reform candidate tells me. Both of their new-found rival parties feel the same, not a single council candidate or party source will tell me where they consider “safe”. Local party politics are still playing a part in the forthcoming election. Several independent candidates are stepping up, normally a footnote in Bexley elections, but this time could be different.

One candidate, the former Conservative councillor and Mayor, James Hunt, is standing for his home ward in the south, and tells me he’s getting a good reception “on the door” with his hyperlocal campaign. French believes the risk is a Labour council “through the backdoor”, which he brands as a “complete disaster”.

Yet polls show that Reform could make serious gains either way, but in a place like Bexley, where the Conservatives have a track record to defend and a strong local campaign, it really could be all to play for. Only 7 May will show us if this part of South East London could see the blue team swept away with the reds, or if the Reform tide will break against the London Tories’ rocks.