𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is showing early signs of recovery, with 19 vessels crossing on Saturday after days of disruption, but analysts say the traffic hasn’t translated into any real increase in oil and gas actually flowing through the crucial waterway.

The strait, which once carried a fifth of the world’s oil and gas, has been effectively closed since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on 28 February, with just three ships crossing a day at its lowest point, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward.

Saturday’s figure marked what Windward called a “sharp rebound” following several days of suppressed movement, although it remains a fraction of the 129 daily transits recorded before the conflict began.

“While there are reports of increased vessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz, CREA’s analysis of Kpler [data and analytics company] data shows there is no real surge in oil and gas shipments, and flows appear to be remaining at a steady, measured pace,” Isaac Levi, oil analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), told The Independent.

For the first time in weeks, vessels broadcast their location openly, rather than concealing their movements to evade detection – a pattern that has become widespread among ship operators since the conflict began.

Across the broader Gulf, the total number of vessels rose by 126 in a single day to 892, pointing to a gradual rebuilding of maritime activity in the region, the intelligence firm said.

At Iran’s main oil export terminal on Kharg Island in the Gulf, satellite imagery from Sunday showed two large tankers loading crude while at least eight more waited at anchor, Windward said, suggesting Iranian exports are moving, but slowly and under strain.

Windward’s own assessment stops well short of declaring a recovery.

The firm said the operating environment remained one of partial traffic recovery, active enforcement, persistent sanctions pressure, and continuing adaptation by high-risk maritime networks.

The caution is unsurprising given where diplomacy stands.

The war is now in its ninth week, although a ceasefire has paused most fighting but with no agreement reached on ending the conflict. Iran is offering to end its chokehold on the strait without addressing its nuclear programme, two regional officials with knowledge of the proposal told the Associated Press, but the offer is unlikely to satisfy US president Donald Trump, who wants Tehran’s atomic programme dealt with as part of any overall deal.

“We have all the cards. If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us,” Mr Trump told Fox News on Sunday.

Talks had been expected in Islamabad over the weekend, with Mr Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner due to travel to Pakistan. But Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi left the Pakistani capital on Saturday, and Mr Trump shortly afterwards cancelled the mission.

He told journalists that within 10 minutes of cancelling the trip, Iran sent a “much better” proposal, though he did not elaborate. Mr Araghchi blamed Washington’s “excessive demands” for the delay, saying it was America’s approach that “caused the negotiations to be delayed”.

Mr Araghchi spent the weekend shuttling between Islamabad and Muscat before flying to Saint Petersburg on Monday to meet Russian president Vladimir Putin.

“It is a good opportunity for us to consult with our Russian friends about the developments that have occurred in relation to the war,” he told Iran’s state news agency IRNA.

Iran is also said to be pushing Oman to support a mechanism to collect tolls from vessels passing through the waterway.

A full return to normal traffic will also require clearing the naval mines Iran has deposited near the strait’s designated sea lanes. US defence secretary Pete Hegseth acknowledged on Friday that the mines remain a danger and that risks of transiting were higher than desired, even as American forces worked on clearing them.

Among the more striking transits on Saturday was the Nord, a superyacht linked to sanctioned Russian billionaire Alexey Mordashov, which safely passed through the Iranian side of the waterway and is now docked in Muscat, according to a report from the Maritime Executive.

Iran has a close relationship with Moscow rooted in defence ties, and has an incentive to allow Russian vessels through, the outlet reported.

TankerTrackers.com estimates $380m (£280) worth of crude is now in US custody following interceptions, with another $1bn in oil back in Iran aboard tankers that were turned around by the blockade.

Brent crude was trading at around $107 a barrel on Monday, compared with $72 before the war began. Goldman Sachs lifted its year-end forecast to $90 a barrel from $80, basing the expectation on a return to normal Gulf exports by the end of June, but warned that “non-linear price increases are likely if inventories drop to critically low levels, which we have not seen in the last few decades”.

The disruption extends well beyond oil, with global shipments of liquefied natural gas, fertiliser and other supplies also hit by the near-closure of the strait, deepening fears for the world economy two months into the conflict.