𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

At first glance, it does not seem Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski have much in common. The Reform UK leader and his Green Party opponent could not be more different in their values, instincts and policies. But what they do share is an ability to win over the most disaffected voters in Britain.

Ahead of next week’s local elections pollster Luke Tryl carried out research into how voters feel about the country and the results were not pretty. His team at More in Common asked members of the public to describe Britain in one word and the most popular response was “broken”.

While the poorest voters unsurprisingly were struggling to make ends meet during the never ending cost of living crisis, every group above it was also making changes to the way they live. Regular treats are being dropped, foreign holidays are off the agenda, cheaper supermarkets are being chosen.

There is a sense that even those on a decent wage do not feel well off, though Tryl did joke that he lost sympathy with the man who complained he can’t run his hot tub as many times a year as he used to. Everything is relative.

More in Common found that voters are suffering from sheer exhaustion caused by the constant pinballing from one political crisis to another. Their analysis painted a pretty bleak picture of how people across the board, from all backgrounds and income brackets feel the country is not working for them.

But there was an interesting 60/40 split on what should be done about it. While there was a loss of trust in government and institutions, most people felt it was fixable if some changes were made. But a sizable minority – the 40% block – believed it was time to “burn down” the system and start again.

While they may have fiercely opposing views on how to do it, it is that group that is fuelling the rise in Reform and the Greens. Supporters of both feel financially insecure but in very different ways.

More in Common found that areas of high unemployment and poor health, particularly the “left-behind” post industrial towns that used to be Labour heartlands are key Reform territory. The Green party, meanwhile, thrives in urban, young, diverse communities. They also feel deprivation, but it is focused on housing – high rents, little ability to buy – and “in work poverty” where wages are not enough to live a good life.

Labour is facing catastrophic losses on Thursday but it is also likely to be a struggle for the Conservatives. It means both Reform and the Greens could make serious headway into local democracy not just across England, but Wales and Scotland too.

The sense of frustration with the main parties, which made up around 97% of the vote in the 1950s, means that some astonishing results are likely. In London, both insurgent parties have a chance of picking up control of a council for the first time.

In the most loyal of Labour areas, such as Barnsley, Gateshead, Sunderland and Wakefield, the party could lose control for the first time since they were formed under changes introduced in 1973. The Greens could win their first seats in the Senedd in Wales and a record number of members elected to the Scottish parliament.

Tories face losing control in areas like Broxbourne, Hampshire, West Sussex and Essex. Reform UK is tipped to be the main beneficiary of both losses suffered by both the main parties, picking up a potential 1,550 seats.

The Greens are tipped to pick up 500 seats, mainly in London and major cities.

If the polling turns out to be on the nose, what next? Both parties are setting themselves apart from Labour and the Tories, promising major changes after years of centrism in British politics. But both will face intensive scrutiny over their performance in any council they win next week, not least by the parties they ousted.

How they fare in local politics will not determine the outcome in a general election but it should be viewed as a test by each party. Voters are turning to them because they believe the main parties have failed to keep the promises they made and, to cap it off, they are incompetent and full of sleaze.

If the insurgents cannot meet the pledges they make, their supporters are likely to lose faith in the system for good.