𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Nigel Farage has vowed to give Labour leadership contender Andy Burnham “a very nasty shock” by ending his hopes of returning to Parliament and becoming Prime Minister. The Reform UK leader pledged to “throw everything we can” at the Makerfield by-election, which Mr Burnham must win in order to launch a leadership coup against Keir Starmer. Senior Labour politicians last night admitted Reform UK could pull off a stunning victory in the north west constituency, where current Labour MP Josh Simons is standing down. It would be a huge blow to Labour politicians who believe installing Mr Burnham as leader is their only hope of avoiding wipeout at the next general election.

Mr Farage told the Express: “If Andy Burnham thinks he can use local people to waltz in as leader of this failing Labour govenment, we will throw everything we can at this by-election to give him a very nasty shock.” Only a sitting Labour MP can stand for the party leadership and Mr Burnham quit Parliament in 2017 to become mayor of Greater Manchester. He is set to discover this weekend whether he will be blocked from standing in the by-election, when Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) holds a meeting following the outbreak of civil war within the party.

Rival leadership contender Wes Streeting, who resigned as Health Secretary on Thursday, insisted Mr Burnham should be allowed to stand. He said: “The Makerfield by-election will be tough. Votes will need to be earned. Andy is the best chance of winning and that should override factional advantage or propping up one person.”

Allies also confirmed that Mr Streeting intends to put himself forward in any battle to replace Sir Keir.

The NEC blocked Mr Burnham from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year, at Sir Keir’s urging, but it is thought that there will be no such ban this time.

However, if the mayor is selected as Labour’s candidate he will then face a bruising by-election in which both Reform and the Green Party would hope to pull off a dramatic upset victory.

In a speech to the Fire Brigade’s Conference, Labour Deputy Leader Lucy Powell said: “This is going to be a tough by-election for us to win against Reform.”

Mr Simons said it would be “a really, really, really tough fight” against Reform. And Luke Akehurst, the North Durham Labour MP and a member of the NEC, said “I don’t underestimate the scale of the task for the Labour party even with a very high-profile candidate that’s the local mayor to hold that seat.”

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said Labour’s chances of winning in Makerfield would be below five per cent with any other candidate – but Mr Burnham may do better because of his high profile in the north west.

Reform MP Sarah Pochin, who won last year’s Runcorn and Helsby by-election, told the Express: “The people of Makerfield deserve a local MP, not someone that just wants to stand on their backs in order to get into No 10.

“Reform UK will throw everything at this by-election to ensure that local people have a proper representative, not someone that will just reduce them to a chapter in Labour’s civil war.”

Mr Burnham insisted in a statement this week: “I truly do not take a single vote for granted and will work hard to regain the trust of people in the Makerfield constituency, many of whom have long supported our party but lost faith in recent times.”

The mayor was pictured jogging today but made no further comment.

Labour won the seat with a 5,399 majority in 2024, while Reform came second. But Reform gained 50.4% of the vote across the eight Makerfield wards contested in local elections earlier this month, while Labour won just 22.7%.

The Green Party is also “eyeing up an opportunity” in Makerfield, according to sources.

Housing Secretary Steve Reed, an ally of the Prime Minister, insisted Sir Keir had no plans to stand down and denied reports the Prime Minister was considering his position. He said: “That isn’t true, no. The Labour Party will not copy the chaos we saw under the Conservatives.

“It remains the fact that there is no challenger. No one has gathered 81 nominations to mount a challenge against the Prime Minister. My job, his job, everyone else’s job is to get on and deliver the change we were sent here to deliver. We have to focus on the British people, not talk to ourselves.”

Mr Reed admitted: “The Prime Minister is unpopular, but each of the last four prime ministers in turn have been the most unpopular prime minister we’ve ever had.” Labour rules give Sir Keir the automatic right to stand in any contest while he is Prime Minister, and unlike other candidates he would not need to gather nominations from MPs.

There is little prospect of Labour’s civil war being resolved swiftly, as it is thought the earliest date a by-election could be held is June 18. Despite feverish speculation at Westminster, it remains to be seen whether Mr Burnham or Mr Streeting would then immediately gather the 81 signatures needed to launch a leadership challenge designed to depose Sir Keir. If they did, then Labour could attempt to hold a swift contest, but the battle would drag on over the summer with the result announced at the party conference in Liverpool at the end of September.

James Murray, the new Health Secretary appointed by Sir Keir to replace Mr Streeting, visited Downing Street on his first full day in the job today.