𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

A bombshell poll shows Nigel Farage inching closer to leading the UK as Reform UK surges ahead of rival parties. Average vote shares from 11 polling companies that published a general election poll in May put Mr Farage‘s outfit on 27.8% of the vote, up 1.4 percentage points on April.

Reform UK is almost eight percentage points ahead of Labour’s 19.9%, with the Conservative Party trailing behind on 18.3%, the Green Party on 13.6% and the Lib Dems 12.1%, according to analysis from the Electoral Reform Society (ERS). The Society’s polling breakdown came after Reform UK enjoyed sweeping gains in the local elections on May 7.

While Reform UK appears to be the most popular option in the ERS poll, senior researcher, Ian Simpson, said the outfit was backed by fewer than three in 10 voters.

He said: “Historically, such a vote share would have been regarded as a poor result for a party hoping to form a government.

“In Britain’s traditional two-party era, winning power usually required support from well over a third of voters. This is no longer necessarily the case.”

Mr Simpson explained that under the UK’s First Past the Post electoral system, a party’s overall popularity does not shape outcomes.

Instead, how popular a party is in relation to other parties matters more as finishing a few points ahead of a main rival in a crowded field means there is “a good chance” that party can win a majority of seats.

The ERS is calling for urgent reform of the UK’s electoral system to ensure parties supported by a minority of voters cannot secure an overall majority on local councils and in the Commons.

It recommends Proportional Representation using the Single Transferrable Vote should be adopted for all local elections.

The ERS said its polling average for May was compiled using data from pollsters BMG, Deltapoll, Find Out Now, Freshwater Strategy, Ipsos, J.L. Partners, More In Common, Opinium, Techne, Trajectory Partnership and YouGov.

While the ERS polling averages analysis suggests Mr Farage would sweep to victory at the next general election, YouGov polling from April shows he is not favoured by everyone.

Mr Farage has a net favourability rating of -38, compared to Sir Keir Starmer’s -45 and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s -21, according to YouGov.

Reform UK’s next electoral test will be in by-elections in Makerfield, Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, and Aberdeen South.

Voters in Makerfield will cast votes in a contest which could decide whether candidate Andy Burnham becomes the next prime minister.

If Mr Burnham wins, there is a strong chance he will replace embattled Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer as leader of the Labour Party and UK.

He is up against Reform UK, which wants to prove that a long-time Labour stronghold is fertile ground for its anti-immigration message, with potentially seismic consequences for British democracy.

Makerfield has swung towards Labour for 120 years, but Mr Burnham is not a shoo-in as Reform won 24 of the 25 council seats up for grabs in May’s local elections.

Mr Farage’s outfit also faces competition on the right from former Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe, whose Restore Britain party is also standing in Makerfield.