𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership has been heading towards disaster ever since he sat down with Chancellor Rachel Reeves and then-Defence Secretary John Healey in the run-up to Christmas. They were meeting with the chief of the defence staff, Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton. This former RAF engineer came bearing grim news.

He told the ministers there was a £28billion shortfall at the Ministry of Defence for the four years leading up to 2030, according to a Times report. This was a horrifying message for Sir Keir, who thought the landmark Strategic Defence Review was fully costed. Ever since then, he has faced the challenge of a filling a hole in the nation’s defences, right when NATO must prepare for a potential Russian attack on a member state and President Trump expects European nations to stump up the cash for their own protection.

Sir Keir went into the Christmas holidays facing both a security crisis and a political nightmare. A “defence investment plan” setting out how Britain’s military would be upgraded to deter a host of threats had been expected in the autumn, but there was now no question of rushing it out in the new year after Sir Richard’s intervention. The Prime Minister needed a Chancellor who could work miracles to rescue Britain’s armed forces but Rachel Reeves’s priority mission is avoiding market turmoil which would push Britain’s already punishing borrowing costs higher.

This is a Chancellor who wrecked Labour’s honeymoon in power by ending universal winter fuel payments for pensioners, who plotted inheritance tax on farmers, who dismayed employers by hiking up their National Insurance payments and who is forcing poorer Britons to pay income tax by freezing personal allowances. Sir Keir must have known that a Chancellor who was prepared to torch her own party’s popularity would not turn on a cash fountain for the Ministry of Defence, a department notorious for procurement scandals.

Wrangling over the defence budget has continued throughout this year and the war in Iran has made Britain’s economic and security challenges even more daunting. The UK has been humiliated with naval ships having to head to port after breakdowns, and former generals and defence secretaries line up to warn of dangerous vulnerabilities. The question is no longer whether we could liberate the Falklands or defend Taiwan. It is whether we have a military which can deter attacks on Britain itself and ensure vital supply lines and energy and communications networks are not cut off.

At least Sir Keir had John Healey by his side. The 66-year-old has a reputation for unwavering loyalty and has toured the world, assuring allies that Britain stands ready to defend democracy. But by Thursday lunchtime, Mr Healey had reached breaking point. Ms Reeves’s Treasury is not prepared to deliver the cash he believes is necessary and he has quit.

The most damning line in his resignation statement reads: “You have been unable, and the Treasury has been unwilling, to commit resources that the nation needs to defend the country at this time of rising threats.”

This former ally of the Prime Minister has concluded Sir Keir is too weak to push his Chancellor to do what it takes to re-arm Britain.

Up until now, the strongest argument the PM could make for why he should not be replaced by Andy Burnham – if the Mayor of Greater Manchester wins Thursday’s Makerfield by-election – is that Britain cannot afford to switch prime ministers when there are so many threats to national security. But Mr Healey has painted Sir Keir and Ms Reeves as part of the problem, and Mr Burnham’s challenge is to set out how he will rebuild our defences before Vladimir Putin can hit an ally. If can do that convincingly, he could be stroking Larry the cat in the Downing Street study before the summer recess.

Sir Keir may well regret keeping Ms Reeves in the Treasury. A bolder Chancellor might have issued new defence bonds or announced a ring-fenced tax to support the military – or taken a scythe to benefits. Instead, she has torpedoed her neighbour in Number 10 and his premiership is sinking fast.