𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

‘The Establishment’ has surely handed the keys to No10 to Nigel Farage after the Reform boss played his would-be tormentors with the consummate skill of Bellingham skinning a Mexican defender.

They just don’t get it do they? Mired as they are in Westminster herd-think, technocratic minutiae and ‘gotcha politics’ they – and I mean this slippery and slightly nebulous concept The Establishment – simply don’t understand the man or woman on the Clapham omnibus anymore. (Or the Grimsby omnibus, or the Accrington omnibus, or the Newcastle omnibus. Maybe especially those omnibuses actually.)

Neither does The Establishment grasp quite how deep the contempt is for politics and politicians among the British rank and file. Farage, multi-millionaire though he clearly is, does.

He also gets that the furore confected around his financial dealings is, to most electors, just so much noise aimed at using any means necessary to stop Farage’s march on No10.

And he’s right. Even a piece on the Today programme (not usually known for its warm feelings towards Reform) had a Clacton woman responding to a question about Farage’s £5million saying: “If someone gave me a £5m present I’d say thankyou very much.” She spoke for us all.

So what’s Farage alleged to have done?

In a nutshell Farage is under investigation by Parliament’s standards commissioner for not declaring a £5 million gift from Reform UK donor Christopher Harborne, which he accepted before becoming an MP. Opposition parties are urging a further probe into additional support reportedly provided by friend and ally “Posh” George Cottrell. The support included funding for security, staffing, social media work and accommodation before the 2024 general election. Farage maintains he followed Commons rules, arguing the benefits were personal, not subject to declaration, and denies any wrongdoing. The ongoing investigation will determine whether any rules were broken and could result in anything from a corrected register entry to sanctions, including a possible suspension from Parliament.

Of course the usual suspects have come out in force to decry Farage’s bid to seize the narrative and resign. This has led to the hilarious prospect of Count Binface trouncing Labour, the Tories, the Lib Dems and RestoreUK if they fail to – as they are promising – put up a candidate in Clacton. Meanwhile, Ed Davey has revealed a hitherto unsuspected love of Farage – the Lib Dem boss thinks he should be prevented from standing down.

And, of course, Labour bigwigs have decried Farage’s concocted byelection as a ‘cynical political stunt’ and ‘a circus’.

Which is a bit rich after the Andy Barnum circus (see what I did there…) in Makerfield which saw Josh Simons standing down cynically to make way for the PM elect’s circus.

In the normal way of things Labour might be expected to try and grasp the moral high-ground. And yet, with the Makerfield debacle simply a blueprint for Farage’s Clacton stunt, and with Labour’s deputy leader binned for questionable financial too-ings and fro-ings, and its US Ambassador Peter Mandelson banished forever for being best buddies with the world’s most famous paedophile, etc etc.. that’s not bloody likely.

Similarly, it could be argued Farage has shunned proper engagement with the press of late.

Which would be an open goal for Labour had Andy Burnham not undergone fewer serious press interviews than most people have had Covid jabs since being elected.

Occasionally Farage’s attacks and comments on ‘The Establishment’ can sound like Flat Earth conspiracy theory, but on this occasion it feels real. Every other party has a reason to fear Farage.

However, The Establishment has massively over-played its hand.

Even if the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner finds against Farage (which is by no means certain) the worst that can happen, via a very convoluted route with a shedload of “what-ifs”, is a byelection.

Bonkersly, this would likely be a second byelection.

Whatever the case, Farage would, I contend, win by a landslide, as the people of Clacton would do that very British thing of sticking two fingers up to the establishment and rooting for the underdog.

You could put your mortgage on it.

They think they are tripping Farage up, but in fact they are rolling out the red carpet for him to the door of No10.