𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Red Ange has her old job back. She’s returned to frontline politics as Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government. It’s almost as if her £40,000 stamp duty swerve never happened. She’s talking the Burnham talk too, or at least her departmental press officer is, pledging to crack on with devolution to “put power back in people’s hands – and hope back in our hearts”. Yes, it’s the old hopey-changey thing that worked out so well for Keir Starmer. Behind the scenes, things aren’t quite so happy-clappy.

Burnham is taking a big chance here. Voters won’t forget her stamp duty swerve that easily, especially if she clings onto the £17,000 payoff she got after quitting the cabinet. It doesn’t help that he’s also rehabilitated Louise Haigh, who unlike Rayner was found guilty of fraud. I suppose we could call it the cabinet of all the talents, even if some of them are a bit dubious. But it would have been just as dangerous for Burnham to leave Rayner out. She’d be a much bigger danger to him on the back benches, and he knows it.

Rayner and Burnham have been friends for years, both personally and politically. His devolution programme is partly based on legislation she prepared as housing secretary. Despite that, Rayner has notably failed to make it into his hallowed inner circle. Admission is closely guarded by two other northern female MPs, Louise Haigh and Anneliese Midgley, and they’ve bolted the doors against Rayner. She wasn’t part of the operational team that fought his Makerfield by-election campaign. And she was sweating over that cabinet appointment right to the last.

Rayner is all smiles today, but housing secretary isn’t one of the great offices of state. And it’s a long way from being PM, a position she was dreaming of just a few short weeks ago, before the Burnham bandwagon swept all before it.

Burnham’s inner circle remain wary of Rayner, believing her leadership ambitions still burn bright. Labour has just crowned the King of the North PM, and Burnham won’t want a rival northern queen building her own court on the back benches.

Rayner’s team protest her loyalty, pointing to her support when he was blocked from running in the Gorton and Denton by-election in January. But if Burnham stumbles, she could once again become a lightning rod for disaffection, just as she was under Starmer.

On the day Rayner was forced to resign from Starmer’s cabinet, I wrote that she’d be back with a vengeance. Her subsequent manoeuvrings helped topple Starmer. Burnham could prove just as vulnerable.

Haigh is the power behind Burnham’s throne today, having revived Labour’s soft-left Tribune Group and thrown its weight behind him. When Rayner sounded out its support for her own candidacy in May, Haigh gave her short shrift. Rayner remembers.

For Burnham, it makes good politics to bring Red Ange back into the cabinet, where he can keep a close eye on her. And given his current popularity within the party, it makes sense for Rayner to put a brave face on things. But his popularity won’t last for long if the scandals keep rolling along. If he slips, Rayner could pounce. Burnham may be king today but as every chess player knows, the queen ultimately has more moves.