𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

How has Kemi Badenoch suddenly become the bookies’ favourite to be next prime minister? After all, she hasn’t benefited from a huge surge in popularity these last few months. The Government, while still awful, hasn’t suffered a major crisis that would cost millions of votes. Reform is still ahead of the Tories in all polls. So, what’s going on? A big reason is that Labour sensibly ditched Keir Starmer.

Before then, the bookies’ favourites to be next prime minister were senior Labour figures jockeying to replace him. There was Burnham, of course, and also Miliband, Rayner, Streeting, Cooper and Healey. Since September last year, nobody with an ounce of political nous thought Starmer would serve a full term, so his replacement was sure to be from his own party.

But now it’s all changed. Barring a truly calamitous premiership, beyond even Starmer levels of awfulness, Burnham will fight the next election. And, at the moment, the only people who could feasibly replace him in Downing Street, should he lose, appear to be Farage and Badenoch.

Given that Reform routinely polls above the Conservatives, you’d expect Farage to be favourite. So why isn’t he? Simple. Because although millions absolutely adore the guy, many more millions will vote for anyone – even a man with a bin on his head – instead. The Bookies reckon his marmite quality may be his downfall, even if he’s loved in much of Clacton.

Which just leaves Badenoch.

Now, of course, being favourite to be next prime minister doesn’t mean that she has a strong chance of succeeding. It just means the bookies reckon her chance is better than anyone else’s. William Hill gives her a 3/1 shot, with Farage just behind on 7/2. Nobody else comes close.

So, how could she do it? Well, clearly, the Tories would have to win more seats at the next election than anyone else, and, unless that number is at least 325, be in a position to form a coalition, most likely with Reform.

At the start of the year, with Reform riding high on around 33% in the polls and the Tories at least ten points back, that seemed extremely unlikely. It was much more plausible that Reform would be the senior partner. But now, with Farage, fairly or not, facing intense scrutiny and venom, it’s not quite so far-fetched.

My own feeling, expressed through gritted teeth, is that the next election, now that Starmer has gone, is Labour’s to lose. They might not get a majority, still less a landslide, but a coalition with the LibDems, Greens and even SNP looks possible, particularly since the Tory brand is still so roundly despised and with the Right in danger of splitting down the middle. That’s before we even mention Rupert Lowe. I fear Burnham could be prime minister into the 2030s.

But if a week is a long time in politics, then a year or so is an eon. Badenoch has played an astute, patient game after an unspectacular start. There’s little, if any, talk of her being challenged, and she comfortably out-polls her own party. Meanwhile, the economy is set to be the main election issue, which she’ll regard as fertile ground.

A path to power is opening up for her. Yes, it’s long, winding and narrow. There are perilous drops on either side, with Burnham, Farage and others looking to tip her into the abyss. They may well succeed.

But the path is navigable. She has a shot. That’s why, like it or not, her position as narrow favourite to be next prime minister is just about deserved.