𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Stiff gin and tonic in hand, Nigel Farage leans back in his chair, puffs out his cheeks and gives a raspy laugh. “This’ll do the job,” he says, revelling in the afterglow of being given rockstar treatment by thousands of adoring supporters.

We were backstage immediately after the Reform UK leader’s big speech at last year’s party conference, and the country’s most influential politician of the past decade or so appears pleased with himself. Unzipping a garment carrier, he tells me he’d planned to wear a striking new teal-coloured suit for the big occasion but decided to save it for another event later in the day. He then takes a call from a journalist planning to run an uncomfortable story about him before hanging up and letting out an expletive that would make a sailor blush. Another slug of gin and the smile was back again.

It’s no wonder Mr Farage was oozing confidence. His party was riding high in the polls – peaking at 34% in some, no-one was really talking about his Right-wing rival Kemi Badenoch while Keir Starmer and his Cabinet were embroiled in a freebie scandal.

Reform appeared unstoppable. Their stellar ascent from populist upstarts to the summit of British politics was astonishing.

That was 12 months ago.

Almost 365 days later and the shine appears to be wearing off. Some even say the wheels are coming loose too.

Reform isn’t clapped out yet, far from it. The party’s stunning performance in May’s local, Welsh and Scottish elections reaffirmed that they are a major force in a fragmented political scene.

But their polling has slumped to around 24%, Mrs Badenoch is now hailed as the country’s most popular political leader while it’s Mr Farage who is engulfed in scandal – over donations.

That led to him resigning as an MP in July, triggering a by-election in Clacton in which he defeated Count Binface, among others, to regain the seat.

He may well have to do it all over again in the Autumn if the Parliamentary watchdog finds that he breached the MPs code of conduct for failing to properly declare a £5 million gift from billionaire backer Christopher Harborne.

Aside from Clacton, Reform failed to win two other by-elections this year that it had serious aspirations of winning – Gorton and Denton (won by the Greens) and Makerfield (in which Andy Burnham was victorious).

Rumours of a brewing internal civil war also erupted during the summer with a very public row between Zia Yusuf and the Reform supporting political commentator Tim Montgomerie, a Tory defector, who has now been suspended from the party.

The political landscape has changed dramatically as well.

Starmer – his dull, plodding style made him an easy target for Reform – is no longer Prime Minister having been ousted by the more PR savvy Burnham.

Robert Jenrick is no longer a Conservative following his dramatic defection in January – he now holds the second most important job in the party, that of shadow chancellor.

That’s a lot of change in a relatively short space of time.

So what has gone wrong with the party, which has also had to grapple with the tragic and truly horrific murder of Ann Widdecombe, and can it regain its mojo?

This year’s party conference, while not make-or-break, is a significant moment for Reform, a chance to get back on track following a rollercoaster 2026.

One key party figure said: “Like all good champions you’ve got to be able to take a punch, to roll with them and fight back. This is an opportunity to do that, to get back on the front foot.”

Aside from the recent tumult, Reform has been pumping out serious policy announcements in the past few weeks.

There have been beefy measures aimed at slashing the welfare budget, prioritising British workers for social housing, boosting apprenticeships and helping small businesses.

Some “major” policies are expected to be unveiled as the Reform jamboree descends on Birmingham’s NEC next week with more than 12,000 expected to attend.

The Reform supporter, with knowledge of the event, added: “These announcements show that we are a serious party with serious policies. This is what the conference will be all about. It is going to be a major moment for the party.”

They are all designed to signal that Reform’s people are Britons who work, rather than migrants who don’t.

The party also appears to be slightly recalibrating pitch.

Its original conference slogan, “It’s Time For Reform”, has apparently been ditched. Instead, the party will focus on the first 100 days of a Nigel Farage government.

That includes announcing more high profile shadow cabinet roles – including current MPs and other “high profile, well known” figures from outside of politics.

Reform is preparing hard for a general election that it believes could come as soon as next year.

A source said: “Nigel has always believed there will be an early election and has been focussing a lot of his efforts on getting the party ready for when that moment comes.”

This includes a massive push on Facebook to woo voters.

“It worked in Clacton for the by-election. He won more votes and the vote share went up,” they added.

Reform’s popularity is helped by its, and Farage’s, enormous reach on social media.

He dwarfs all UK party leaders with around 7.6 million total followers across Facebook, Instagram, X, TikTok, and YouTube.

The party’s high command also remains bullish about its electoral prospects.

Despite the fragmentation of British politics they are still targeting 375 seats at the next election with 125 regarded as the “absolute basement” amount.

Candidates for the first batch of highly winnable seats will be selected and announced soon.

But there still remains a nagging argument about whether the Right should unite to defeat Labour.

Mrs Badenoch reignited the blue touch paper last weekend when ruling out doing a “monstrous” deal with Reform – even if there was a hung parliament at the next general election.

And a few feathers were ruffled on Monday when it was reported that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told her not to make a deal with Mr Farage.

It was claimed that Ms Meloni urged Mrs Badenoch to “be your own woman and stand your ground” against Reform.

However, the following day it emerged the Italians had pushed back on their Prime Minister’s alleged comments.

A party official insisted Ms Meloni has no hostility to Mr Farage or Reform, but does not intend to get involved in domestic political dynamics or the relationships between British parties.

Arch nemesis Robert Jenrick blasted his former boss for “living in a fantasy world” following her chat over coffee with Ms Meloni in Rome and said Reform are not interested in entering a pact with the “busted flush” Tories.

It deliciously sets the scene for a three-way fight for Britain.

Reform will be hoping that its conference will be scandal free and can provide the springboard to greater success in the Autumn and beyond.

It will need to be as they have a shiny new Labour leader to deal with as well as an increasingly impressive Mrs Badenoch.

Buckle up. It’s going to be a fun ride.