𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

John Healey is desperate to clamp down on speculation about what he’s going to do on October 28. Last week, he batted away questions from journalists asking which taxes he was going to increase. He’ll try to hold the line all the way to Budget day. He’s learned from predecessor Rachel Reeves, as pre-Budget speculation ran riot on her watch. Instead, Westminster is speculating about something else. Not the Budget, but what happens afterwards. They reckon PM Andy Burnham has a plan.

Healey is seen as a safe pair of hands, in marked contrast to Reeves. He will do his level best to turn his maiden Budget into a non-event. Why? Because this one doesn’t matter. It’s a phoney Budget. A counterfeit statement. It’s the next one that counts. We got a sense of this last week, when Healey called a press conference and calmly told us nothing. It’s going to be the same next month. That’s the strategy.

Right now, Healey is on a knife edge. He keeps telling us he’s committed to fiscal discipline, but then his boss rocks up and starts talking about his big spending plans. Not just the small stuff, like VAT on electricity, the bus fare cap and plans to end rough sleeping. But his big pledges, such as sorting out the social care shambles and council house building spree. They’ll cost us tens of billions.

Healey doesn’t have the money. He looks at gilt yields, now climbing beyond Liz Truss levels, and knows he daren’t borrow more. Burnham looks at his personal poll numbers, and knows he has to do something. The two men are at cross purposes, but there is solution that might work for both of them. Provided they’re willing to take a gamble.

Burnham is boxed in by Labour’s manifesto. He’s pledged not to increase income tax, national insurance or VAT. Those are the three biggest taxes, and if he wants to raise big money, one of them has to increase.

The public will rebel if he trashes a manifesto pledge, which means he has to go to the country to get his mandate. And this is where the phoney Budget comes into it. Healey needs to give him a platform for doing that. So he won’t do anything desperate. No huge tax hikes, no dramatic spending cuts and, when it comes to defence, little new money.

All the big decisions will be pushed down the line, something that’s already becoming a habit with this government. This will be a non-Budget. That suits Healey, and it suits Burnham, because it paves the way for a snap election in the spring.

With Nigel Farage’s Reform UK embroiled in a row over crypto donations and the Tories still to be forgiven for past misdemeanours, some reckon this is Burnham’s chance. He’s still enjoying a bit of a bounce, but it’ll fade over time.

If Healey can make it through the Budget without scaring the voters, then Burnham is all clear for spring. One Tory has predicted it will be a “nothingburger” Budget. After Rachel Reeves’ two stomach-churning epics, many taxpayers will welcome that. But they may not like what follows.

If Burnham calls a snap election and wins it, he’ll be free to increase any taxes he likes, knowing the next election will be five years away. He has another reason to get that snap election done. Reeves left an unfortunate fiscal time bomb, which forces Labour to slash spending in the run up to the 2029 election. It would have blown up in her face. Instead, it’ll sink Healey and Burnham.

Calling an election now would defuse that too. The arguments are stacking up in favour. We’ll know after the Budget.