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Martin Lewis has clarified who is at risk of paying income tax following news of a rise in State Pension payments. The full, flat-rate state pension is expected to rise by £488 a year in April, meaning it will top £13,000.

It is due to the triple lock – which guarantees the State Pension will rise by whichever is highest out of average wage growth, inflation, or 2.5 per cent. The actual figure is yet to be confirmed, but it can be worked out based on the latest official earnings figure released today (Tuesday, September 15).

If correct, the flat-rate State Pension will climb to £250.70 a week, or £13,036.40 a year. The old basic state pension – for those who reached state pension age before April 2016 – will likely be £192.10 a week, or £9,989.20 a year, an increase of £374.40.

The number is significant because it would take the flat-rate state pension above the personal allowance of £12,570. This means that people receiving it would go over the amount you can earn before paying income tax.

The Labour Government has previously stated that it would not charge people tax if their only means of income was the State Pension, although Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds refused to confirm that when asked by the BBC.

Money-saving expert Mr Lewis referenced a pledge made by then-Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves in an interview with him in late 2025. Mr Lewis said: “It’s likely the State Pension will rise by 3.9% next April based on the rise in average earnings that has just been published. This’d take the full new State Pension to just over £13,000, yet the tax free personal allowance is frozen at £12,570. Will the govt honour Rachel Reeves pledge to me when she was Chancellor that from next April ‘a pensioner only getting state pension won’t pay tax’.”

He went on to clarify who would be affected by the projected State Pension rise, and who would have to pay income tax. He said: “Many saying ‘why don’t they just make State Pension tax free?’ Well it’s always been taxable, so high earners pay tax on it (think someone with £1m earnings and investment income age 70). The change is that from April someone with ONLY full new state pension income will need to pay tax. And regardless of the triple lock or not, that would’ve happened at some point if you continue to freeze the personal allowance – that’s the prime cause of this for me.”

One user on X said: “The state pension was higher than the personal allowance in the 1980s,” to which Mr Lewis replied: “Before my time, I’ll take your word for it. Yet it is still a change to the way things have operated for decades.”

Is the triple lock here to stay?

The triple lock remains a tricky subject. Many pensioners claim it protects them from significant rises in the cost of living, especially as many do not have salaries.

Furthermore, high energy bills and a rise in the cost of living generally have already put pensioners under financial pressures. However, it is costly for the UK’s finances.

It currently costs the UK £154billion a year, and a rise of around £600million has been forecast by the end of the 2029/30 financial year. Ruth Curtice, the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation think tank, branded the triple lock ‘crazy’ as it has seen ‘pensioners’ living standards grow even faster than just a typical worker’.

“Pensioners have seen living standards grow three times more than typical workers over the last 20 years,” she said.

Jonathan Cribb, deputy director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank, said: “Each increase in spending builds upon the last and so the long-run cost is substantial but very uncertain.”

But scrapping it is likely to be seen as a highly unpopular measure. Labour made a manifesto pledge to keep the triple lock until at least 2029, while both the Conservatives and Reform have also said they would keep it should they be elected.