𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

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When responding to the Budget on Wednesday, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch said: “Business confidence is negative, not just this quarter, and not just the last quarter, but for seven quarters in a row. That has never happened before.

“In case Labour MPs do not understand what that means, the last time business confidence was positive was when we were in charge.”

Evaluation

A survey of business confidence that the Conservative Party pointed to as the source of Mrs Badenoch’s claims does not match what she said.

Another survey comes closer, showing that business confidence has been negative for seven consecutive quarters. But it is not the first time this has happened, and the last time business confidence was recorded as positive in that survey was several months into Labour’s time in power.

The facts

The IoD survey

When asked what measure Mrs Badenoch was referring to, the Conservative Party pointed towards a survey from the Institute of Directors (IoD).

The IoD’s Directors’ Economic Confidence Index measures how optimistic business leaders feel about the UK economy.

This measure has been negative for a long time. However, it does not appear to match the claims made by Mrs Badenoch and is unlikely to be the source of  her statement.

First, Mrs Badenoch was speaking about quarters, while the IoD survey is monthly (although appears to skip some months). Secondly, the IoD survey has been negative since August 2024, which is a little under nine quarters, not seven.

Thirdly, Mrs Badenoch said “that’s never happened before” when referring to the period the tracker has spent in the negatives, but the IoD survey had a considerably longer negative streak that started in September 2021 and ended in July 2024.

Fourthly, the reading was last positive in July 2024. That reading was based on research carried out between July 19 and July 30 2024, a period of time after Labour came to power. Before then, it had not been positive since July 2021.

The Conservative Party has not yet responded to queries on these inconsistencies.

The ICAEW survey

A potentially more likely source for Mrs Badenoch’s claim is a survey from the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW).

This survey matches the Conservative leader’s claims on some points where the IoD ‘s figures differ. It is a quarterly survey and has been negative for seven quarters in a row.

However, that is where the similarities between this survey and Mrs Badenoch’s claims end.

Mrs Badenoch’s suggestion that a seven-quarter negative streak has never happened before is not true according to this survey. The current streak was matched during the financial crisis when business confidence was negative for another seven quarters.

And while she said the last time a positive reading had been recorded was under the Conservatives, it was instead during the fourth quarter of 2024 when Labour had been in power for several months. The previous reading for the third quarter of 2024 – the first reading taken under Labour – was also positive.

The Press Association has been unable to find any measure of business confidence that matches Mrs Badenoch’s comments. Searches were carried out through traditional search engines and through AI tools.

Links

Hansard – Wednesday 28 October 2026

IoD Directors’ Economic Confidence Index – 1 October 2026 (archived)

IoD Directors’ Economic Confidence Index – chart from October 2026 (archived)

IoD Directors’ Economic Confidence Index – chart from July 2024 (archived)

IoD Directors’ Economic Confidence Index – 1 September 2024 (archived)

IoD Directors’ Economic Confidence Index – 30 September 2021 (archived)

IoD Directors’ Economic Confidence Index – 1 August 2024 (archived)

ICAEW – UK Business Confidence Monitor: National – Q3 2026 (archived)

ICAEW – UK Business Confidence Monitor: National – Q4 2024 (archived)

ICAEW – UK Business Confidence Monitor: National – Q3 2024 (archived)

Spreadsheet with collated ICAEW scores from 2007 (archived)