𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Greens are euphoric, Labour is dismayed and Reform UK has deep-thinking to do in the wake of the Gorton and Denton by-election. Huge challenges are facing every party that wants to unite enough of the country to win power at the next general election. Here are five key questions facing strategists after a night which has shaken British politics.

For the second election in a row, Reform UK is the siver medallist in Gorton and Denton. Candidate Matt Goodwin pushed the party’s vote share up from 14% to nearly 29% but there will be disappointment a new Reform MP is not coming to Westminster.

The party has transformed British politics but it faces two clear challenges. First, tactical voting is a huge threat to its ambitions. Millions of Left-leaning voters will swing behind whichever party is best placed to deny Reform a seat – and that is lethal in a first past the post system.

Second, the Greens are a force Reform cannot ignore. Immigration has galvanised millions of voters to support Reform but issues such as Gaza are just as powerful among other sections of the population. Reform is intent on replacing the Conservatives and the Greens will want to be the go-to choice for Left-leaning voters by the time of the next general election; Reform needs a clear strategy for how it will fight head to head contests with Zack Polanski’s party.

Reform strategists may also ask whether the time has come to stop welcoming Conservative defectors. Nigel Farage has already set May’s local elections as a deadline for defections.

Voting Reform has been a way to express anger at the Conservatives, but the party’s MPs now include the likes of Robert Jenrick, who is its “shadow chancellor”, Suella Braverman, Danny Kruger and Andrew Rosindell. Does the party need to re-embrace populist politics and do everything it can to avoid looking like the Tories 2.0?

The Greens pulled off a brilliant win in a three-way race, increasing the vote share from 13% to nearly 41%. The passion of Green supporters was never in doubt but they have also shown they can campaign effectively and get out the vote with devastating consequences for long-established parties.

The big question is whether they can do this in a general election when hundreds of seats will be in play. People voted Green this time in the knowledge the candidate would not get near real levers of power; but in a Westminster election people are choosing the party they want to run the Government.

In such a contest, the Greens’ policy on drugs will come under real scrutiny. The Prime Minister accused the party of wanting his son to be able to buy class A drugs when he turns 18; Mr Polanski will need to counter such attack lines.

Voters will also want assurance their energy bills will not be pushed up, and national security is likely to be a key issue with the country facing the renewed threat from Russia. The party needs to show it is not a mid-term sideshow but an option for Government.

The Lib Dems won 72 MPs on Sir Ed Davey’s watch at the last election but a party once famed for winning by-elections delivered a pathetic 653 votes in Gorton and Denton.

The party looks in a neither fish nor fowl situation. Former leader Charles Kennedy two decades ago gave voice to Britons appalled by the invasion of Iraq but the Lb Dems have not become a lightning rod for those angry with Labour’s stance on Gaza. Nor has the party capitalised on the Tories’ shift to the Right and become a home for liberal-minded voters who prize economic competence.

The Lib Dems have many more MPs than Reform and the Greens but have failed to capture the nation’s attention or imagination, languishing at around 13% in the polls. Can they escape the wilderness?

In a seat where 10,578 people voted for Reform UK, just 706 backed the Tories. This is despite the Conservatives putting its tanks on Nigel Farage’s turf by abandoning support for net zero policies and the European Convention on Human Rights.

The Conservatives came fifth in Gorton and Denton last time but at least they won 2,888 votes. Now their vote share has plummeted from almost 8% to just under 2%. A party which aspires to lead the next UK Government needs to do better than this.

Losing to Reform in a heartland seat would have been painful but seeing it won by the Greens will be agonising for Labour. There is the prospect of more pain for the party in May when it could lose control of the Welsh Government for the first time and be overtaken by Reform and Plaid Cymru, as well as losing seats in English councils.

Could it have won this seat if Labour’s governing body had not blocked Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham from standing in a move which looked like a naked bid to block a leadership challenge to Sir Keir? Many on the soft Left will think so.

The opinion polls are not wrong. This is a desperately unpopular Government and voters are angry.

Labour is facing calls to shift to the Left to take on the Greens. But that will horrify Labour MPs in seats where immigration is a top issue and they face intense competition from Reform.

There is no consensus within Labour on where it should go next and who – if anyone – should replace Sir Keir. But it is evident the status quo is not working.

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