𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Sir Keir Starmer will face his largest ever loss at the local elections in Birmingham tomorrow in a disaster for Labour, latest polling suggests. Results on the eve of the elections predicted that, for the first time ever, Labour and Conservatives will be replaced by non-traditional parties, with Reform UK and the Independents set to make major gains.

There are 101 council seats up for grabs on May 7 in Birmingham, and polling by research group More in Common predicted Reform UK will win 47 seats, Independents will get 17, and Labour will fall behind with 14, reports ITV. If the results play out, based on responses from 1,794 Brummies who intended to vote, this would be a devastating loss for Labour in a city where it has been a powerhouse political party.

Having maintained its control of the council with 65 seats in the 2022 local election, the results would see Labour losing a huge 51 seats. This would be the largest ever defeat for Labour in the council.

The poll suggested the city will move away from the two main parties. The Tories, which formed the main opposition last time with 22 seats, have been forecast just six seats in this poll.

Meanwhile, The Greens could make gains – a trend also predicted in London. The poll forecasted Zack Polanski’s party will win 12 seats compared to just two last time, while Lib Dems were predicted losses, with five seats in the poll, compared to 12 at the last election.

Polling for local elections has a larger margin of error than national polling, particularly when predicting seat numbers, so the results may not reflect what really happens tomorrow.

Despite Reform set to win three times as many seats as Labour, the vote share looks a far closer contest. Reform UK has been forecast just 3% more votes than Labour, with an estimated 26% of the vote.

This votes and seats can often look mismatched because the ‘first past the post’ polling system at local elections means that parties can win the seat if they score just one more vote.

The Greens have been forecast 18% of the votes, higher than 15% for the Conservatives. Despite the Independents looking to get the second highest number of seats, the vote share predictions are just 12%. The Libdems have been forecast 7%.

The Green Party of England and Wales has also been forecast gains at Labour’s expense in urban areas of England, including in London.