𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Labour is expected to go “down in a ball of flames” as voters vent their anger at Sir Keir Starmer in a historic set of elections. The latest YouGov polling shows Labour is about to lose control of Wales for the first time since the creation of the Welsh Parliament in 1999.

Pro-independence Plaid Cymru is on course to be the biggest party, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK the second-largest in the Senedd. Disaster for Sir Keir’s party also awaits in Scotland, where Labour is on course to have its worst performance in a Holyrood election. The SNP is predicted to win 62 of the 129 seats, with Reform making a breakthrough by coming second.

Defeat in Wales will heap pressure on the Prime Minister to quit. Labour has been the biggest party in every general election for more than a century, but Reform has cast this contest as a referendum on Sir Keir’s leadership.

A senior Welsh Labour figure, speaking on condition of anonymity, said voters on the doorsteps had a “visceral dislike” of Sir Keir, adding: “They want him to go, yeah. Let’s be blunt about that, they want him gone.”

Labour’s vote share is projected to fall to just 12% in brutal evidence that voters in a nation which sent Aneurin Bevan and Keir Hardie to Westminster have abandoned the party.

Describing the challenge of getting activists to campaign for Labour, the source said: “Nobody’s coming out. Why would you want to spend the afternoon or evening getting abused on the doorstep?”

Dan Thomas, the leader of Reform in Wales, said the election is a “historic opportunity for us to deliver real change here in Wales” but warned of the potential for a “Labour and Plaid stitch up” in the Senedd. Plaid is expected to win 43 seats – short of the 49 needed for a majority – but Labour could win 12 seats.

Mr Thomas said: “That’s why we need to deliver a result too big for the political establishment to ignore.”

Reform is on track to win 34 seats with the Tories expected to secure just four.

Darren Millar, the leader of the Welsh Conservatives, said Labour is “going down in a ball of flames” but shared Mr Thomas’s concerns that Labour – which was in coalition with Plaid from 2007 to 2011 – could link up with the pro-independence party.

Describing the consequences of the election for the Prime Minister, he said: “I think there’ll be enormous pressure on Sir Keir Starmer. There’s no doubt that a lot of people are deserting the Labour party because of him and his lack of decent leadership for the country, and they want change.”

Despite the gloomy polling for the Tories, Mr Millar said that under the Senedd’s voting system – which sees six members elected in 16 constituencies – “the Conservatives can literally win one or two seats in every constituency in Wales”.

Support for Plaid has surged under the leadership of former BBC journalist Rhun ap Iorweth but Mr Millar said he did not see any “significant appetite” for independence.

He said: “People want their local hospitals to function, they want an ambulance to turn up on time, they want to be able to get a GP appointment; young people want to be able to afford to own their own home. These are the things that we are focused on as a party.”

It would be a “disaster for the whole of the United Kingdom”, he warned, if Plaid was focused on a “drive to independence” while the SNP in Scotland and Sinn Fein pushed for the break-up of the UK.

Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan urged Welsh voters to stick with her party, saying: “In an increasingly uncertain world, people need stability . This is not a moment to jump into the dark with uncosted fantasy politics or parties that stoke anger and division. This is about people’s jobs, bills, the future of the NHS and our future generations.”

Deputy Welsh Labour leader Carolyn Harris claimed that other parties would endanger investment in public services, saying: “This election is about your family’s future, a chance for good jobs and a fairer deal for everyone in Wales.”

Plaid Cymru candidate Delyth Jewell, standing in the traditional Labour heartland area of Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni, said only her party could stop “billionaire-backed Reform from taking Wales backwards”, cautioning that while there is “real momentum behind Plaid”, nothing can be “taken for granted”.

She said: “We are within touching distance of forming the next government, and every vote will help decide the future of Wales.”

The Scottish and Welsh elections take place as voters across England elect new councillors. Labour use the hours before polls close to try and stop the Greens winning the London borough of Hackney.

A disastrous result for Labour will fuel speculation that Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham will seek to return to Westminster to launch a leadership bid.

A Labour MP was unimpressed by the prospect, pointing out that Mr Burnham twice ran for the leadership and lost, adding: “Suddenly he’s gone up North, started wearing the same clothes as Noel Gallagher and Oasis and started making out like he’s some sort of northern rock star.”