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Thousands of pubs face closure unless the Labour government overhauls its controversial business rates system, industry leaders have warned. The British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA) says around 2,300 pubs could shut by 2029-30 without meaningful reform, delivering a “devastating blow to communities, jobs and local economies” across the country.

Despite recent concessions — including pub-specific rates relief worth around £2,000 per venue and a two-year freeze from 2027-28 — the sector argues the underlying valuation method remains fundamentally unfair. Unlike most businesses, which are rated on open-market rent, pubs are assessed on their complex financial takings.

The Government’s support package, announced in January, is projected to deliver £73.6 million in savings for the 2026-27 period, reducing the average pub bill to £11,459. The two-year freeze is expected to generate a further £273 million in relief.

BBPA Chief Executive Emma McClarkin warned that the measures provide only temporary respite, saying: “While these measures have reduced the immediate burden, they do not solve the long-term problem, which traps pubs in a cycle of uncertainty and shocking increases.

“Our analysis shows that if the underlying methodology is left unchanged, we could see around 2,300 pubs close in 2029-30.

“We cannot emphasise enough what a devastating blow to communities, jobs and local economies across the country that would be. Getting the methodology right is not simply an administrative exercise. It will have real-world consequences for thousands of pubs, workers, and the communities they serve.”

Greene King Chief Executive Nick Mackenzie, whose firm operates 2,600 sites, added: “The upcoming Treasury review must fix the fundamental unfairness of the business rates system, which disproportionately penalises pubs.

“Until these meaningful changes are introduced, pubs across the country will continue to be stifled by regulatory costs and less able to invest and grow.”

The warnings highlight ongoing pressure on the pub trade from rising costs and post-pandemic challenges. The Telegraph’s Save Our Pubs campaign has previously highlighted how escalating business rates have threatened the viability of many sites.

The Treasury has confirmed it is reviewing how pubs are valued for business rates.

A Treasury spokesman said: “We have the right economic plan – we’re backing hospitality by cutting VAT on family attractions and kids’ meals this summer, reforming business rates, extending World Cup opening hours, and taking action on the cost of living to boost the sector.”