𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

The Budget is exactly six weeks away on October 28 and one thing is certain. It’s going to be difficult. Possibly worse than the last two, which were both nightmares courtesy of former chancellor Rachel Reeves. She hit us with £40billion of tax rises in her first Budget, followed by another £26billion in her second. She also paved the way for Labour to borrow an extra £100billion a year by the end of this Parliament. Reeves left us in an even bigger hole than the one she inherited, and it’s getting deeper by the day.

Growth and confidence are on the floor, while tax, spending, unemployment, the national debt and borrowing costs are soaring. We’re in no fit state to withstand an economic shock, and now we face a massive one, as the Iran war and the intensifying conflict in Ukraine drive up the oil price. This is already pushing up food and energy bills, while leaving chancellor John Healey with little or no fiscal headroom.

This morning brought yet more bad news, with inflation hitting 3.1% in August. Experts warn it could climb to 4.5% next year, forcing the Bank of England to hike interest rates four times, punishing borrowers and killing growth. That’s a grim backdrop for Healey. Unfortunately, his boss Andy Burnham isn’t making things easier.

Burnham kicked off his stint at Number 10 by announcing a string of spending commitments. These further panicked bond markets and sent gilt yields still higher. Some, such as building more council houses and sorting out social care, could cost tens of billions of pounds we don’t have.

Today, Burnham got his comeuppance. Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane was one of his economic advisers until recently. Like another of Burnham’s experts, ex-Goldman Sachs banker Jim O’Neill, he isn’t impressed by what he’s seeing, and has distanced himself.

Everything Burnham has said and done so far certainly confirms that. When questioned about it this morning, Burnham said: “That doesn’t tell the story. I mean, we are not that.”

Incredibly, he then claimed to have already taken “difficult decisions” on spending, citing putting digital ID on hold. That was his only example, and it wasn’t a good one. As Labour’s own Darren Jones, the minister responsible, pointed out when Burnham first mentioned dropping digital ID, that scheme was unfunded and the money never allocated. Now Burnham is once again claiming the glory for a decision he never even made.

The PM added that: “We will take difficult decisions to make sure the economy remains on track.” But those decisions will have to be a lot more difficult than anything he’s done so far. They could either mean cutting an estimated £10billion off spending, hiking taxes by £10billion, or a combination of the two.

I really can’t see Labour backbenchers and the trade unions swallowing £10billion of spending cuts. So I think we know what we’re going to get. Taxpayers had better brace themselves for a difficult budget. At least we’ve got those TikTok videos.