𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Andy Burnham has had a dream start. His blokey, affable charm is a sweet relief after Keir Starmer’s wooden blundering. He’s been able to amuse himself by posting jolly videos on social media while taking a victory lap around the country, on the pretext of “listening” to what we all have to say. So far, it’s been fun and games, and he’s riding high in the polls. He hasn’t had to make a single tough decision. That’s about to change.

Ultimately, making decisions is what leadership is about. The prisoner release fiasco is merely a taste of what’s to come. There’s no decision to be made here. Burnham must block the release of the killers of PC Harper. He’ll have the nation behind him. Once he’s fixed that, he’ll find the decisions are lining up, demanding to be made. But on these, the nation will be divided. Whatever he decides, many people will hate him. And his popularity will take a massive hit.

Burnham has to decide how to fund the £4.7 billion shortfall in defence spending. Whether to nationalise Thames Water. Where to source the cash for his council housebuilding boom. How to persuade Labour backbenchers to accept welfare cuts. And exactly who should pay for his social care reforms? None of these is easy. And there’s another big fight looming. Let’s call it the Battle of the North Sea.

Burnham must shortly decide whether to approve development of the Jackdaw and Rosebank oil and gas fields. Former energy secretary Ed Miliband chose his side in this war by obstructing them, and left-wing activists loved him for it. Yet Miliband also caused uproar.

The energy industry argued that it’s ridiculous to block domestic drilling while we’re frantically importing gas from abroad and paying heavily for the privilege. Critics accused Miliband of destroying jobs, sacrificing tax revenues, damaging the balance of payments and undermining Britain’s energy security.

They also said the domestic drilling ban did little to prevent climate change, because liquefied natural gas imported from the US and Qatar has higher emissions. Given the controversy, Burnham quickly signalled a more “pragmatic” approach to the North Sea, raising expectations that he could permit some projects.

That would delight Miliband’s critics, but enrage his supporters. Many on the left will never forgive Burnham if he presses ahead. It could trigger the first revolt of his leadership.

This decision couldn’t have come at a more crucial time, with Britain facing drought, wildfires and a summer of brutal heat. Miliband has previously called the approval of Rosebank “climate vandalism”. If Burnham allows it, he’ll be the vandal.

He also risks losing the voters he’s picked up from Zack Polanski’s Green Party, who says approving Jackdaw and Rosebank would be “a dereliction of duty… whatever weasel words are used”. So Burnham will be a weasel, too. Worst of all, he’ll get be warmly applauded by Donald Trump.

Public consultations on Jackdaw closed last Monday. Rosebank closes today. The PM could make his choice next month.

If Burnham presses ahead, he’ll take fire from the left. If he blocks the drillers, he’ll get it from the right. If he fudges, he’ll get it from both sides.

The PM can’t win. Those who hate his decision will make far more noise than those who back it. Welcome to Government, Andy. Enjoy.