𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Burnham made a decent start. After two years of Keir Starmer, it’s refreshing to have a human being running the country again. And so far, he’s played his hand well. Proposals to cut electricity bills, bus fares and pub business rates have been popular. His blokey social media schtick will wear thin, but a sense of humour comes in handy. It’s a clever way to deflect political attacks. But we’re in the summer recess. Westminster wars resume next week. And he’s vulnerable to attack.

Burnham’s poll ratings aren’t the only thing to have bounced. So have a heap of economic indicators, and in a completely disastrous way. They’ve all been driven upwards by the Labour policies he has inherited. He needs to reverse them. Instead, he seems likely to double down.

Let’s start with unemployment. It’s going up. Last week’s jobs figures show just what a basket case Labour has turned Britain into. The unemployment rate is now 4.9%, up from 4.1% when Labour took office. Job vacancies have plunged to 707,000, their lowest level outside the pandemic since 2014. The Iran war isn’t helping, but Rachel Reeves’s incomprehensible decision to slap £25billion of extra taxes on jobs, especially the type young people do, has fuelled the fire.

Angela Rayner’s Employment Rights Bill has added more petrol, by deterring companies from taking a chance on young staff. Youth unemployment is soaring and it’s going to get worse. The benefits bill is going up too, along with dubious mental health claims. Incredibly, the numbers on Universal Credit with no work requirements has surged by one million in a year.

We spent £30billion on benefits in July, up an inflation-busting 7.2% on the same month last year. Welfare already swallows every penny of income tax, and it’s getting hungrier.

Something else has bounced. Public sector pay is up 6.1% in a year, while the hard-pressed private sector got just 2.8%. Public sector has bounced too, with 41,000 new staff this year. At the same time, private sector jobs have crashed by 110,000. The state sector is gobbling up the private one. It isn’t sustainable. Labour’s response? Tax the private sector more.

Then there’s another bounce. Net debt is approaching £3trillion, yet we’re on course to borrow another £120billion or so this year. That’s not enough for new Chancellor John Healey, who’s working out how to add another £9 billion a year by the end of this parliament. By 2030, our national debt could be heading towards £3.5trillion. Boing.

Borrowing costs have bounced too. They were already high by G7 standards because of our risky fiscal position. Now 10-year gilt yields have climbed above 5%, as the Iran war pushes up oil prices and inflation. That’s way above the 4.6% that sank Liz Truss.

So Burnham’s bounce isn’t the only one around. Unemployment, benefits, public spending, debt, borrowing and gilt yields are all bouncing too. So is the tax burden. Tax took 38% of GDP when Reeves blundered into Number 11, already a post-war high. The IMF forecasts it will bounce to 42.1% by 2030. That will crush growth. While pouring more money into the unproductive state sector.

All this might be okay if Burnham had acknowledged the problem and pledged to tackle it. Instead, he wants to spend more, borrow more and tax more. If he does, his bounce won’t last long. Instead, there’ll be a terrible crashing sound, as our economy and his popularity plunge in lockstep. He’ll be bounced out of Number 10 the first chance voters get.