𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Andy Burnham’s coronation as our next Prime Minister is almost complete. Not a single Labour MP has chosen to challenge the newly elected member for Makerfield, sparing him the scrutiny that comes with a genuine leadership contest.

That matters because there are major questions about the direction he intends to take the country. The biggest is one he cannot dodge for much longer: will Andy Burnham raise taxes?

Rachel Reeves said economic growth was her “number one mission”. She failed. Yesterday’s growth figures are the latest proof that, after two years of Labour, Britain’s economy is barely moving.

That failure wasn’t an accident. It was the product of Labour’s economic choices. Two years of higher taxes have squeezed families, workers, businesses and investors alike, leaving Britain with record tax levels but precious little growth to show for them.

The worrying thing is that Andy Burnham appears ready to double down. Reports suggest he is considering fresh tax rises, while his allies openly discuss higher taxes on assets, property and capital gains.

That should surprise nobody. Burnham has already made a string of expensive spending promises, from the biggest council house building programme since the war to nationalising utilities and plugging the £5 billion hole in Labour’s Defence Investment Plan.

The maths is simple. If he wants to spend more, there are only three ways to pay for it: borrow more, cut spending elsewhere or raise taxes.

Borrowing is already stretched to breaking point. Rachel Reeves has been planning more than a quarter of a trillion pounds of extra borrowing over this Parliament compared with the plans she inherited, while Burnham insists he will stick to Labour’s fiscal rules. Spending restraint – particularly on Britain’s spiralling welfare bill – would be the sensible alternative. But Burnham has shown little appetite for difficult decisions.

That leaves one obvious conclusion: higher taxes.

The warning signs don’t end there. Reports suggest Burnham wants Shabana Mahmood as his Chancellor. She has a long record of calling for higher taxes. If she gets the job and wants to succeed where Rachel Reeves failed, she will need to learn the lessons of her predecessor’s disastrous economic record. Britain cannot afford another round of tax, spend and borrow profligacy from the party that promised not to raise taxes.

The uncertainty is already damaging confidence. Businesses delay investment when they fear tax raids are around the corner. Employers hold back on hiring. Growth suffers before a Budget is even delivered.

Britain does not have a revenue problem. It has a growth problem.

If Andy Burnham wants to restore confidence and show his leadership will be different he should start by ruling out further tax rises.

Sir Mel Stride is the Shadow Chancellor