𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Burnham got his timing spot on when he entered the Makerfield by-election and was rewarded by sweeping Keir Starmer out of Number 10. His timing has since deserted him, big time. The upcoming Budget couldn’t have landed at a worst moment. Labour only wants their leader to tax more and spend more, but he can’t. Chancellor John Healey has the fiscal headroom of a Friday night drunk down to his last two quid. That’s bad news for Burnham.

Starmer taxed and spent to excess, and Labour still heaved him out. Burnham can’t do either. Instead, he’s offering the left something else they dream of, closer alignment with the EU and possibly even full membership. Unfortunately, he’s doing it at the worst time imaginable. Snuggling up to the EU today is like asking somebody to pass you a ticking time bomb, seconds before it blows. Because Europe is on the brink of meltdown.

France is in a pre-revolutionary state, with even its teenagers rioting. And like its original revolution, this one has been made worse by a lurch towards bankruptcy. French public debt is heading towards 120% of GDP, even higher than ours at 95%. Its budget deficit is a painful 5.4%. Ours isn’t much better at 4%, but at least we recognise the danger. In France, they no longer seem to care.

French pensions swallow a staggering 14% of GDP, compared to 5% in the UK. Yet the French retire at 64, and there’s a campaign to return that to just 62. By contrast, the UK retirement age is headed to 68, while Burnham is pushing to axe the state pension triple lock too.

The French used eurozone membership as an excuse to go on a spree, on the assumption that Germany will ultimately stand behind the debt. But Germany doesn’t seem too keen, and French borrowing costs are rocketing as a result.

Germany has troubles of its own. Since the pandemic, the UK economy has grown by a pretty pathetic 6.2%. Germany can only dream of that. Its economy is on stall speed, up just 1.8% over the same period, as cheap Chinese imports drive its motor industry off the road.

Both countries are lurching towards the far right as a result. In France, Marine Le Pen is favourite to win next year’s presidential elections, while in Germany the far-right AfD is gaining ground by the day. Britain has huge problems of its own. But it’s madness to imagine we can solve them by embracing this economic and political disaster zone.

The EU claims it’s a superpower but it’s a lightweight compared to the US and China, and withering by the day. Both are making huge bounds in artificial intelligence, while the EU tries to regulate the new tech out of existence. This latest failure will only accelerate its decline.

The euro is showing the strain, plunging to a 17-month low against the dollar. Yet the British left continue to view Europe through a romantic haze of baguettes, cheap wine, sunshine and generous social benefits. The reality is far more disturbing.

Europe is a fiscal and political timebomb. The sensible thing is to stand well clear. What Burnham is doing is madness. It’ll blow up in all our faces.