𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Andy Burnham told Donald Trump this week that he will “lay out a plan for Britain, a 10-year direction”. And this isn’t the first time he’s promised to publish a 10-year plan setting out how he hopes to govern the country. It’s one sign that he’s planning to hold a general election before long, such as in the first half of 2027.

Labour colleagues find it easy to explain why an election is on the cards. As one said: “It’s never going to get better for Andy than it is now.” Unfortunately for you and me, 2027 is shaping up to be a miserable year, with energy bills, food prices and mortgage payments shooting up. Mr Burnham needs to go to the polls and get a mandate for his plans before we start to feel the pain.

It’s true that Britain’s new Prime Minister has ruled out an early election, or “snap” election, as the media calls it. But this appeared to mean an election immediately after he became Prime Minister, in July this year. It’s not a promise to wait until August 2029, the latest date a general election could take place.

Mr Burnham needs to show he has the country’s support to put his 10-year plan into effect.

Just after he became Prime Minister, Mr Burnham said: “There was a manifesto in 2024. I’m sticking to that manifesto.”

He’s repeatedly said he feels bound by the manifesto that Labour put to the public in the 2024 election, when it won a huge majority.

That makes sense. It provides an answer to critics who say that nobody elected Mr Burnham as Prime Minister and so on (these arguments misunderstand how our political system works, but they can still be effective).

But it’s also a tacit admission that he lacks a mandate for radical policies not in the manifesto. And his 10-year plan will be full of these.

Mr Burnham’s best hope of getting the mandate he feels he needs is to hold an election soon, because things are not going to get better.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has warned that Britain’s economic growth will slow down next year. The Bank of England expects inflation to rise. Food producers say food costs will increase significantly, partly due to extreme weather. Finance experts expect mortgage costs to increase. And household energy bills will rise faster than inflation.

You and I, I’m afraid, are likely to feel poorer in 2028 than we do today. And voters who feel their lives are going downhill tend to want a change of government, not to keep the incumbent in power.

Meanwhile, the opposition is divided – but that may not last forever.

The anti-Labour vote is largely split between the Conservatives and Reform. Both are desperate to kill off the other. Neither of them can achieve it.

But we cannot know if this will last forever. Perhaps Right-leaning voters will rally behind Reform or the Tories.

All we know for sure is that the British Right is currently split, which helps Labour.

It’s true that Labour, which today holds 403 out of the 650 seats in Parliament, would lose some MPs if an election were held now.

But what Mr Burnham wants is a Commons majority allowing him to carry out his plans for the UK – even if it’s a smaller majority than Labour currently enjoys.

And what’s his best chance of getting the new mandate he feels he needs? It’s not waiting until 2029. It’s striking while the iron is hot in 2027, and this is what many Labour colleagues expect the Prime Minister to do.