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Andy Burnham has been urged by a top pollster to call an early general election. James Johnson, of JL Partners, said the new PM should go to the country “this year or, at the latest, early next”.

It comes as the latest YouGov poll put Labour ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK for the first time in 18 months as the party enjoys a bounce under Sir Keir Starmer’s successor. Meanwhile, the Right of British politics is split between Reform, the Tories and Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain.

And Mr Farage has been at the centre of a row over his finances, prompting him to quit as an MP and trigger a by-election in Clacton, which has been snubbed by the main parties.

There is also the chance of a second by-election being forced, depending on the outcome of a parliamentary probe into an undeclared £5million gift the Reform leader received, which will resume if he wins this Thursday’s contest.

Writing in The Times, Mr Johnson said: “I suspect Farage will weather this storm, but with his recent travails over donations to Reform and the prospect of two by-elections, you can see why No 10 may feel the chances of Farage being in post for the whole parliament are dimming.

“Farage remains Reform’s best asset, and if Farage goes, Reform goes with him. Rather than fight a resurgent Badenoch with a more united Right in such a situation in 2029, Burnham would do better to use his Goldilocks moment. Farage is not too strong nor too weak — he is strong enough for Burnham to engineer a two-horse race but can be beaten.”

Mr Johnson acknowledged that snap elections are unpredictable and that it could risk an “insurgent Farage capturing the anti-establishment zeitgeist and outperforming”.

But he said there are “good odds” that Mr Burnham will “win a large majority of his own, escape the manifesto trap he faces and scatter his opponents”.

Mr Burnham entered 10 Downing Street last month after returning to Parliament in the Makerfield by-election.

The next general election is not due until 2029 and the PM has so far ruled out going early.