𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

If you followed the coverage of the recent super Thursday June by-elections, you would be forgiven for thinking there was only one story. Makerfield. Andy Burnham. Kick Starmer out. Yet despite the wall to wall coverage from almost every major outlet, there was actually a surprise winner I think on that Thursday. The Conservatives. Of the almost 20 by-elections that have taken place since the May Local Elections, the Conservatives have won more than any other party. Yes, the same Conservatives other parties claim are dead, irrelevant or in decline.

And despite all the talk, the facts are that on Thursday 18th, the Conservative won the same amount of Parliamentary seats as Labour and the SNP, and one more than Reform, as gained the Aberdeen South constituency. And not only that, we gained two Council seats off Reform in Essex, holding two more Council seats in Hillingdon and coming out top of the night across all parties.

Whilst everyone was talking about the incoming Labour leadership contest as a result of Andy Burnham winning in Makerfield, the Conservatives were quietly winning elections.

Let’s be honest, we all came to the realisation that Burnham would win, but the remarkable result of the night was, I think, how the Conservatives came top.

First, the Conservatives won a Scottish Parliamentary by-election for the first time in 59 years. Think about that for a moment. Nearly six decades have passed since the party last achieved such a result. In an era where commentators routinely describe the Conservatives as ‘finished’ in Scotland, voters delivered a very different message.

The key topic on the doorsteps: oil and gas. Why on earth are we curing off our own new oil and gas supplies, in the midst of an energy crisis, when we will still need oil-based products for another century, and when the same oil fields we could be drilling are being drilled by our neighbours and then sold back to us!

Then there were the gains from Reform UK. Yes, the Conservatives GAINED from Reform.

For months, we have been told that Reform represents an existential threat to the Conservative Party. We have heard endless commentary of Conservative voters abandoning the party, Reform being the new opposition to Labour and their supposedly unstoppable momentum.

Yet here, the Conservatives gained seats directly from Reform. And Reform won…nothing.

Now that does not mean the challenge has disappeared. We are still behind Reform in the polls. If there was a General Election tomorrow most polls would predict them to be the largest party. Yet, it does mean that voters are starting to consider us, are beginning to think twice, and in Reform-run areas, where the Conservatives are now winning, maybe, just maybe, Reform aren’t delivering the credible change and shake up they promised.

And perhaps most importantly, Conservatives successfully defended seats across the country.

Again, this may not sound dramatic. It certainly won’t generate the same headlines as a shock defeat or an internal party row. But politics is often won through accumulation rather than spectacle.

Every seat held is proof that the Conservatives are not dead.

Last month, writing about the local elections, I argued that there were green shoots for the Conservative Party, winning in London, increasing majorities, but they would only grow if we were prepared to listen.

I believe last night’s results reinforce exactly the same lesson.

The successful Conservative campaigns were not built on clever slogans, social media stunts, or waiting for opponents to make mistakes.

They were built on candidates who worked. Candidates who knocked on doors. Candidates who understood their communities. Candidates who built relationships long before polling day arrived.

The lesson is the same one I led in Harrow East during the General Election and then again in Harrow. Voters still value hard work. They still value visibility. They still value politicians who put them first and get things done.

Too often in politics we become obsessed with national narratives and forget that elections are ultimately decided locally. What we wake up and see outside the window. We spend hours discussing Westminster while voters care about their street.

These results suggest that perhaps the Conservatives have found their turning point. After almost destruction in the General Election, and a grueling set of Local Elections in 2025, things are starting to change.

The Conservatives have risen in the polls, Kemi is now the least unpopular of the political party leaders, and there were examples of gains and improvements in these latest elections.

There is no room for complacency. One encouraging set of results does not erase the challenges facing the party. Trust needs rebuilding.

But that starts somewhere. A gain from Reform here. A by-election victory there. A series of successful holds across the country.

I know these may seem like small steps individually, but when you start seeing a pattern it points towards something bigger: evidence that Conservative recovery is possible.

Work hard. Campaign relentlessly. Build genuine local connections. Earn support rather than expect it. And deliver.

Those were the green shoots I wrote about after the local elections when we won.

And after these by-election results, a few more green shoots have appeared.

The question now is whether we are prepared to nurture them and if the country is finally ready to listen to the Conservatives once again.

Matthew Goodwin-Freeman is a local councillor in Harrow, the London Borough Representative on the Conservative Councillors Association and founder of political consultancy GetElected.uk