𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

I was recently teaching my kids how to play the cardgame Pontoon (Blackjack or 21s – take your pick). A simple game where all you need is to be able to count, take a few calculated risks and also get a slice of luck.

It’s a bit like the conundrum seemingly facing Andy Burnham at the moment. Should he stick or twist? Stick with a massive parliamentary majority but an inherited manifesto that he doesn’t want or twist by calling a snap general election.

Talk of an early vote – the next one is scheduled for August 2029 at the very latest – has been rife in Westminster corridors in the past fortnight.

Kemi Badenoch, who admits she enjoys a game of poker herself, is getting her party ready for Burnham to pull the trigger. She assembled her new look Shadow Cabinet for a central London away day on Thursday to discuss general election planning.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, who has repeatedly insisted there will be an early election, is convinced it will be next Spring. Bookmakers too have shortened the odds of 2027 being the year we go to the polls again. According to some, the warning signals are flashing all over the dashboard. One Westminster observer I spoke to this week said that Burnham’s maiden speech as Prime Minister on July 20 gave an obvious clue away when he said he would unveil his 10-year plan later in the year.

“That very much sounded to me like a kind of manifesto launch to me. Him saying: ‘This is where I want to take the country, now do you back it’. The fact that it’s a 10-year plan, ie two parliamentary terms, was a giveaway.”

Others point to Burnham trying to keep or win back Red Wall voters who Labour could lose to Reform. “Just look at the messages he’s been putting out so far. I’m a Northern MP, I care about the North, Number 10 North – policies [like the £2 bus fare cap] that appeal to voters in northern red wall constituencies. You can see what he’s doing,” a Labour veteran said.

Burnham’s appearances in the Commons chamber have raised eyebrows – not just his jet black Captain Scarlet ones – too. “He’s the complete opposite to Keir. He’s got the Labour backbenchers largely onside and that’s because he needs them,” the Labour figure added. “Not only to get stuff done but if he’s going to take them into an election battle then they’ll only want to do it if they believe he’s the person who can lead them to a resounding victory.”

The Prime Minister’s stance over Israel, which triggered a massive backlash this week, is also regarded as further evidence of him gearing up to “go early.” “In the short term he timed the Israel sanctions announcement partly to help with the Holborn and St Pancras [Sir Keir’s former seat] by-election,” one senior Tory tells me. “But they [Labour backbenchers] loved it, it galvanised them. If he decides to go early then that support will help him.”

If Burnham does decide to twist he needs to look carefully at the numbers. In basic terms he doesn’t have the numbers to do it. The so-called “Burnham bounce” has been virtually non-existent. Polls currently show Labour on around 24% with Reform on 23%, the Conservatives on 20%, the Greens 13% and the Lib Dems on 11%. In fact, Burnham may never be more popular than he is now, especially with a grim-looking Budget coming on October 28.

Another parliamentary source added: “Ok, he’s still got a stonking majority, so why would he want to jeopardise that two years before he has to. But he has no manifesto of his own and this is likely to be the zenith of his popularity.You can see what he’s trying to do. Make Labour more Labour again but also trying to appeal to some Lib Dem flip-floppers and the Greens. If he can squeeze 4 or 5% of votes out of those two then it would put Labour in a much stronger position and the temptation to call a general election would be very tempting indeed.”

One other significant factor – one that I touched on last week – was the problems engulfing Reform UK. They haven’t gone away and could well get worse for Farage’s party. Support has, so far, remained steady – albeit significantly lower than last year’s peak. But should begin to dip even further then Burnham could be emboldened to strike sooner rather than later.

A resurgent Badenoch could also play into the Labour leader’s thinking. The longer he leaves it the stronger she is likely to get, dragging her party with her – especially if Reform continues its downward trend. It has been noticeable during his first two PMQs that Burnham hasn’t mentioned Reform at all from the despatch box – unlike his predecessor – while repeatedly targeting the Tories.

He clearly regards them as his main rivals if, and when, he decides to twist.