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Andy Burnham’s pensions policy is “mired in uncertainty”, an expert has said. The state pension is likely to rise by 3.9% next April.

As part of the triple lock policy, it increases each year based on average wage growth, inflation or 2.5% – whichever is highest. Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that annual growth in total earnings, including bonuses, was 3.9% between May and July this year.

The latest inflation rate, which currently sits at 2.9%, is set to be released on Wednesday (September 16). However, wage growth is likely to determine how much the state pension will rise by next year, as it’s projected to be the highest among the metrics.

It means those who receive the full new state pension could see their payments increase from £241.30 to £250.70 per week, which equates to an annual rise of £488.80. Those on the old state pension could expect their payments to increase from £184.90 to £192.10 per week, an increase of £374.60 over a year.

But not everyone is convinced. Rachel Vahey, head of public policy at AJ Bell, has written about state pension income taxation.

She said that the former Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, confirmed that once the state pension clears the frozen personal allowance, pensioners whose sole income is the state pension will not be faced with having to do simple assessment tax returns.

“Collecting the little bits of tax owed from millions of pensioners was always going to be an administrative headache for the government. So it’s no wonder they’ve put their tax-collecting thinking caps on to find ways to avoid it,” Ms Vahey added.

“How this policy will work and how any tax will be collected remains to be seen.

“The Government stated that this will apply to people whose sole income is the state pension, but it wasn’t clear what else would be counted as income.

“Let alone whether it would include income within tax allowances, tax-free income or state pension increments, such as deferred state pension income or the State Earnings Related Pension Scheme (SERPS).

“Under the new Burnham administration, this policy remains mired in uncertainty. Pensioners within this group are naturally starting to ask questions, but time will tell how the proposals shape up and whether they’ll actually make pensioners’ lives simpler.”

The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) will confirm the revised rates during the Autumn Statement next month.

The Bank of England forecasts inflation will peak at around 3.2% later this autumn and, unless this number spikes, the 3.9% wage growth figure will be used to increase the state pension next April.