𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Andy Burnham just couldn’t help himself. He had to utter the fateful words that could become a millstone for his time in Downing Street. The Prime Minister said Labour’s plan to end the Channel migrant crisis was working. In the 24 hours that followed, 752 migrants arrived during what was described as a “full-frontal assault” launched by the people smugglers. A record for this year. In more farcical scenes, around 100 migrants waited for a “taxi boat”, a French gendarme claimed, “our orders are to let them go”.

And tragically, four people died trying to cross the Channel on Thursday. So, what exactly is working, Prime Minister? The answers – and contradictions – to that question lie in a report submitted by Border Security Commander Duncan Capps to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Too few migrants are being deported back to France under Keir Starmer and Shabana Mahmood’s one-in-one-out deal for it to be having a “significant” impact on the Channel crisis, bombshell analysis has revealed.

Mr Capps told the Home Secretary in his annual report: “Evaluation of the pilot is in progress, and it is too early to see significant impacts on migrant/OCG intent as the trial is still scaling up.” This assessment is a blow as it is a critical part of the plan. But intelligence officials believe they have “degraded” the smuggling gangs’ capability.

Joint operations between the British and the French have led to the arrests of 48 “organised immigration crime facilitators”. Crucially, Mr Capps revealed: “Many of whom performed critical roles in organising boat departures or supplying boats and engines”.

The increased patrols in Calais and Dunkirk have led to a “geographic displacement” of the gangs. In response, the kingpins are adopting a “just-in-time” production line, with boats and engines moved from warehouses, often in Western Germany, to the French coast within a matter of hours.

And they are more reliant than ever on “taxi-boats” – or mega dinghies – to make the “most of available supplies”.

This warning would play out to devastating effect in the 36 hours after Mr Burnham’s comments. An African migrant died after a staggering 124-mile, 16-hour, journey from Saint-Aubin-sur-Mer (north of Caen), in Seine-Maritime to between Hardelot and Dannes. It was the longest journey ever attempted, with the beach a staggering 223 miles from Calais.

And a vessel carrying around 100 people became notorious near Boulogne-sur-Mer after the suspected smuggler was allowed to waltz back onto the beach after barking out orders to male migrants to help dislodge the vessel, which had become bogged down in the sand by its weight.”

Dozens had waded into the water to wait for its arrival. They were prepared to risk their lives to reach the UK. And, as an Afghan smuggling kingpin claimed to the Daily Express, crackdowns will fail because “demand is too high”.

He said with confidence: “Demand is increasing. People are leaving their countries. They would like to go to safer countries. This is our business.” Afghan Haji Ajmal added: “There are a lot of people that are asking us to go to Europe. When demand is high, of course we will take the risk.

“There are a lot of people, especially from Afghanistan, who would like to come to Europe.

“They would like to go to the UK. One of the reasons people would like to go to the UK is because there are rumours, reports, among the Afghan people that there is very good hospitality from the UK, including hotels, and their families are encouraging them.

“The risk is more on the people, not us. These people are going by boats. That’s the risk.”

And the Home Office responded to the crises this week by highlighting deportations. They cited a “record” number of returns of small boat migrants. When it comes to this cohort, it is a dubious claim.

In the year to June 2026, 2,750 Channel arrivals were removed. But as the Daily Express exposed, very few of these are to the countries which make up the biggest cohorts crossing the Channel.

A staggering 96,002 asylum seekers from Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Eritrea arrived in small boats between 2018 and 2025.

But only 495 – 0.5% – have been sent back to these countries in seven years. More small boat migrants have been returned to Ireland, 57, than Syria, 55 and Afghanistan, 16. But figures released by the Home Office highlighted a fascinating new trend.

Some 128 Afghans have been booted out of the UK in the past year. A similar picture emerges for Eritreans, 92, and Syrians, 93.

Previously, only 61 small boat arrivals from these countries have been removed since crossings began.

This is because Labour is now also increasingly reliant on France to not only stop migrants crossing the Channel – but to take back those who have “historically been very difficult to return”.

And this is despite there being little evidence that the scheme is having any deterrent effect.

Mr Capps added: “Some benefits are already clear: this pilot creates the opportunity to remove people from the UK who have historically been very difficult to return to their countries of origin.”

And, for all the talk of increasing removals, tens of thousands of people are unlikely to ever be deported.

Research by the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford revealed 27,422 Afghans have crossed the Channel, along with 19,154 Eritreans, 30,269 Iranians, 19,157 Iraqis and 14,744 Syrians between 2018 and 2025.

This analysis did not include the arrivals in 2026, so the true figure will be even higher. And it highlights how reliant the UK currently is on other countries to control its own borders.

Mr Capps told Ms Mahmood: “The UK’s ability to facilitate returns is highly dependent on external factors, including partner willingness to cooperate on returns and many of those who arrive on small boats are from unsafe countries and cannot be returned under international law even if unsuccessful in their claim for asylum.”

This is why so much of the debate often ends up focusing on Britain’s membership of the European Convention on Human Rights.

It’s a point Tory leader Kemi Badenoch highlighted again this week.

She said: “If people know they can stay and claim benefits, they’ll keep coming. If they know they’ll be removed, they won’t come.

“We must change the incentives. That’s why the Conservative Borders Plan leaves the ECHR, giving us the power to ban asylum claims from illegal entrants, and remove new arrivals within a week.”

Mr Burnham highlighted the fall in crossings this year, compared to last year. Down 42%.

But a crucial part of Labour’s plan is to reduce demand to the UK.

It’s true that Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is tightening the rules for asylum seekers.

Labour will force migrants to pay back their hotel costs and they face a much longer wait for settlement rights – if they are granted refuge in the UK.

Shabana Mahmood has told asylum officials that “no weight” should be given to Article 8 claims when the family unit has been established whilst they did not have the legal right to be in the UK.

Ms Mahmood insisted it is right that “once people can contribute and repay the generosity of the British people, we expect them to do so”.

Under the current plans, they are expected to pay around £10,000, as the Home Office wants to slash the £4billion-a-year asylum bill.

And the new legislation will place a greater burden on relatives living together.

A foreign criminal, failed asylum seeker or immigration offender will have to prove they have a “genuine and subsisting relationship”. But the chaos on Wednesday, with hundreds of migrants climbing into dangerously overcrowded dinghies, shows thousands are still willing to risk their lives to cross the Channel.

And until illegal migrants know they won’t be able to remain in Britain, smugglers will keep offering them routes into the UK.

Because criminals who allow a man to sit in a dinghy for 16 hours, only for him to die, won’t stop because of extra police patrols.

The way to crush the smuggling trade is to remove the people for the gangs to traffic. Only then can Mr Burnham truly claim the plan is working. Until then, it’s a case of attempting to limit the damage.