𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

It is the 23rd anniversary of perhaps the most consequential event of this century so far – the invasion of Iraq. Its impact profoundly influenced both domestic and international politics ever since. More than two decades after Tony Blair sent British troops into the battlefield, alongside our US and other allies, war is raging in the Middle East again. Britain is only on the military fringes of this conflict but its effect here could be even more significant.

Iraq ultimately did for Blair, with Labour eventually being kicked out of office in 2010. That same fate could befall Keir Starmer and his government with Iran, but for completely different reasons. The Prime Minister’s leadership is already hanging by a thread, with many expecting him to be turfed out of office this year.

But the economic sledgehammer caused by war could end up toppling the government too. Oil prices are already surging to unthinkable levels, a major energy crisis is looming and a severe economic downturn is becoming increasingly likely.

Apologies if this all sounds bleak but I mention it because every MP I have spoken to this week wanted to talk about it. It’s why Starmer kept turning to Iran time and time again during his scandalously bad appearance at PMQs, where he failed to give a straight answer to answer awkward questions on Peter Mandelson.

And it’s why some in Westminster believe if things get really bad it could trigger an early general election. On current polling that would mean defeat for Labour and with Nigel Farage and Reform UK running the country. It’s increasingly likely that whenever that election comes Starmer won’t be leading his party into battle.

Angela Rayner fired an opening salvo in the race to replace him on Tuesday night, saying time is “running out” for the Labour Party and slamming the government’s migrant crackdown as “un-british”.

One MP told me the PM has “only got weeks left” if, as expected, Labour is destroyed in the upcoming local, regional, Welsh and Scottish elections on May 7.

“Shortly after that I expect to see someone go over the top,” the Labour backbencher said.

Rayner still has her tax affairs to sort out, although there are suggestions this could be done and dusted before the polls open in seven weeks time. Sir Keir, however, is clinging on to the Middle East conflict as some kind of life raft at the moment, such are his domestic woes.

I sat feet away from him during a Downing Street press conference at the beginning of the week where appeared calm, assured and Prime Ministerial. Some 48 hours later in PMQs he was the complete opposite, Rayner’s broadside the previous night clearly ringing in his ears.

So desperate is grip on the party, Starmer has been hosting Chequers love-in sessions with Labour MPs since the beginning of the year to try and win them over. Word on the grapevine is the one thing that sparks furious debate is the food. The PM serves the same chili at each session, and reviews have been mixed.

There is another major political battle brewing – the fight for the Right – with the briefing wars between Reform UK and the Conservatives intensifying. One to watch is the Robert Jenrick v Mel Stride rumble over who is the most trusted to run the economy.

There’s clearly beef between two with Bobby J repeatedly singling out his former colleague for criticism while the Tories mock Jenrick as the Milky Bar Kid for what they see as Reform’s carefree giveaways.