𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Just imagine, for one moment, that the year is 2034. England are hoping to banish 86 years of hurt in that summer’s World Cup, AI hasn’t completely taken over, and Nigel Farage is prime minister.

As he tries to secure a second term in power in the upcoming general election he is, however, considering doing what was unthinkable a decade earlier – increasing immigration. It’s not as far-fetched as you think. Wind back to present-day reality for a moment and take a look at the latest data on the UK’s population projections.

It shows there is about to be a dramatic reversal in the demographics, meaning our country is on track to become older, smaller and poorer.

Deaths are expected to outnumber births in the UK every year from 2026, while the UK’s population will peak at 73.5million in 2054 before plunging.

The reason for the sooner-than-expected fall is twofold: a sharp fall in migration, coupled with declining fertility rates.

It means the number of children in the UK is expected to fall in the next decade, while the number of pensioners will continue to increase.

Perhaps most significantly, for economic reasons at least, is a fall in the working-age population, the very people whose taxes, broadly, pay for everything. This is expected to drop as soon as 2030 if immigration levels continue to decline.

In a figure that shows everything, within half a century, for every two working-age adults, there will be one pensioner. Today, there are around 3.6 workers for every pensioner.

Immigration plays a key role in all of this. Or to be more precise, net migration – the number of people coming in minus those leaving.

At the moment, it’s falling rapidly following the peak of around one million under Boris Johnson to about 200,000 now. This is still historically very high and massively unpalatable to the population.

Reform UK says it wants “net zero” immigration, while the Tories have vowed to bring it down dramatically.

Since the 1950s, it has been clear that government policy has been enabled by the economic growth that comes with a large stock of working-age adults. This was driven in part by the post-war baby boom.

The immigration tap, such as the Windrush Generation, is another way of boosting the working-age population. That was the case too when Tony Blair opened the door to Eastern European migrants in the early part of this century.

But the tap is being closed, and because of falling birth rates, it is going to be felt much sooner than expected.

For starters, a falling working age population means lower income tax and National Insurance receipts. Businesses will also find it increasingly more difficult to find workers.

Fast forward again to 2034, and the government of the time, whoever it may be, could be faced with some very politically tricky choices – one of which would be to bring immigration levels up to what they are now.

You would never have believed that if someone told you in 2026.