𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Morning all, lots to come during the next few hours, starting with the latest UK financial data affecting you (or paid for by you in this case): inheritance tax levels, plus the latest borrowing data.

Next month’s Budget is on everyone’s agenda so these – plus tomorrow’s inflation figures – are important numbers.

Government borrowing costs hit £20.2bn in September, in line with OBR expectations but the highest for the month since Covid.

The figure was more than £1.5bn higher than the same period a year ago, while overall borrowing for the first half of the year is nearly £100bn.

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “Last month saw the highest September borrowing for five years.

“Debt interest, the cost of providing public services and benefits all increased compared with last year, more than offsetting the rise in receipts from central government taxes and national insurance contributions.

“Likewise, the first six months of the financial year saw the highest overall deficit since 2020.”

Thomas Pugh, chief economist at tax and consulting firm RSM UK said today’s figures mean Rachel Reeves will need to find about £30bn in the Budget.

“Today’s release had a little bit of good news for the chancellor. Government borrowing came in almost bang in line with the OBR forecast in September, which is positive after August’s borrowing overshoot. What’s more, cumulative borrowing so far this year was revised down a little,” he said.

“The bigger picture, though, is that cumulative borrowing is still significantly above the OBR forecast and the latest release still paints a picture of deteriorating public finances. The chancellor will probably have to raise around £30bn at the budget in the autumn.

“Crucially, the current budget deficit, which is now what matters for the fiscal rules, came in at -£13.4bn, £1.2bn above the OBR forecast and is now cumulatively £13.0bn higher for the fiscal year so far. That is the number that matters for the chancellor’s fiscal mandate and is even less positive than the headline numbers suggest.

“Looking ahead to the budget in the autumn, we are pencilling in tax increases of around £30bn. We expect fiscal drag, NICs base broadening and a salami slicing of other tax increases to do the bulk of the work with some pencilled in spending cuts to help at the end of the decade.”

Whisky negotiations with the US are about “the hard yards” rather than “one-off photo opportunities”, the Prime Minister has said in a rebuke to First Minister John Swinney.

Mr Swinney has made securing a deal to cut whisky tariffs with the US a key part of his premiership in recent months, meeting President Donald Trump on a number of occasions this year in the hopes of reducing the levies.

The First Minister’s involvement in the talks comes despite international trade being a reserved issue, with the UK Government in the lead.

Speaking to a group of Scottish journalists in Downing Street on Monday, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: “Negotiations and getting the trade deals you want… is about the hard yards of negotiation and that’s what we’ve been up to.”

More comment on the government borrowing numbers, with Danni Hewson, AJ Bell’s head of financial analysis, suggesting the government still has work to do to stimulate growth despite “admirably long term” changes already made.

“This set of government borrowing figures lays bare the tough job Rachel Reeves faces to try and balance the country’s books.

“The chancellor has hiked taxes on employers, announced infrastructure investments and planning reforms, and today promises to cut red tape for businesses. But all those tax-raising, growth-inducing measures haven’t been able to offset the weight piling up on the other end of the seesaw.

“Today’s world demands instant gratification and finding a magic money tree is a plot twist normally reserved for fairytales. In the real world this Budget is likely to be dry, difficult and divisive.”

Pizza Hut has revealed the locations of 68 restaurants which will close after the company behind its UK venues fell into administration.

It will also shut 11 delivery sites as part of a restructuring which will put 1,210 workers at risk of redundancy.

DC London Pie, the firm running Pizza Hut’s UK dine-in restaurants under a franchise deal, appointed administrators from corporate finance firm FTI on Monday.

American hospitality giant Yum! Brands, which owns the global Pizza Hut business, said it has now bought the UK restaurant operation in a pre-pack administration deal, saving 64 sites.

Here are the locations set to close:

More now on those borrowing numbers.

Times figures show interest payments on government borrowing rose to £9.7bn in September.

Shown as a percentage of GDP, the overall total debt is 95.3 per cent.

The autumn asking price bounce among home sellers was lower in October than usual, according to a property website.

Across Britain, the average price of a property coming to the market for sale increased by 0.3% or £1,165 in October to reach £371,422, Rightmove said.

But the rise is below the 10-year average October bounce of 1.1%, as the high number of homes for sale limits sellers’ pricing power, the website added.

October typically sees a seasonal increase in activity and new seller asking prices as the market bounces back from a quieter summer period, but activity has not been strong enough to drive the usual autumn bounce in prices, the report said.

A quick look at the stock market this morning now.

The FTSE 100 is up 0.18 per cent, down slightly from a fast start early on, while most European markets are flat or slightly down for the day.

Segro is up 2.8 per cent as the leader of the index, with data firm RELX, bank HSBC and AutoTrader Group the others up more than 1.5 per cent for the day.

At the other end it’s a day of red for miners – Antofagasta, Fresnillo and Endeavour are the three worst-performing stocks of the morning, the latter down 3 per cent.