𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Britain faces a serious risk of electricity rationing by the time of the next general election , an energy expert has warned. A new report by energy consultancy Watt-Logic has warned has warned that rationing will be required unless urgent steps are taken to address the rapid ageing of its gas-fired power station fleet.

More than a dozen of the country’s gas plants are approaching the end of their operational lives. Many were constructed in the 1990s and received only partial upgrades in the 2000s, which typically did not include replacement of critical components such as rotors. Such rotors are prone to wear, and their replacement can take several years due to long manufacturing and delivery lead times. At present, there are no comprehensive replacement programmes or major refurbishment plans in place for the majority of the fleet.

Gas-fired stations currently supply approximately one-third of the United Kingdom’s electricity generation, reported The Telegraph. On days with little wind, when renewable output is low, this figure can rise to two-thirds or more. 

Kathryn Porter, the report’s author, states that within five years – a period that will likely include the next general election – a significant proportion of these plants could be forced offline due to age-related failures or uneconomic operation.

The problem is intensified by the planned decommissioning of the UK’s ageing nuclear fleet. Eight of the 10 remaining reactors are scheduled to close before or during 2030. 

Without adequate dispatchable generation capacity to replace both the retiring gas and nuclear plants, the electricity system will become increasingly reliant on intermittent renewables backed by insufficient backup.

The report predicts that the period of greatest vulnerability will occur between 2028 and 2031. During these years, the loss of reliable generation capacity is expected to peak, increasing the likelihood of supply shortfalls, particularly during winter periods of high demand and low renewable energy output. 

The document warns explicitly: “Without urgent action to secure dispatchable generation and stabilise the gas network, the UK faces escalating risks of supply shortfalls and widespread system failures well before 2030”.

It further cautions that even maintaining existing levels of electricity demand could prove impossible without some form of rationing. Additional demand arising from the electrification of transport, heating and industry will place even greater strain on the system.

Scotland faces a heightened risk. The region depends on just two major power stations to maintain grid stability, and both are among those considered vulnerable to early retirement or unreliability.

Other plants identified as at risk include Medway, Saltend and Seabank (operated by SSE), Connah’s Quay and Cottam (Uniper), and Little Barford (RWE).

Shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho described the findings as evidence that the Government’s net zero strategy – spearheaded by Energy Security Secretary Ed Miliband – is leading the country towards economic damage. She urged ministers to reconsider their approach and respond to the report’s recommendations.

The National Energy System Operator maintains that Great Britain possesses one of the most secure electricity systems globally and that engineers are confident the grid will remain safe and reliable as renewable capacity continues to grow.

A spokesperson for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said: “This report is nonsense scaremongering, as confirmed by the National Energy System Operator, who has been clear the faster we decarbonise, the more secure we are.

“Gas will continue to play a key role in our energy system as we transition to clean, more secure, homegrown energy.

“That’s why we are also delivering the biggest upgrade to Great Britain’s electricity network in decades to deliver clean power by 2030 and beyond.”

SSE and RWE have also been approached for comment.