𝓤𝓷𝓲𝓽𝓮𝓭 𝓝𝓮𝔀𝓼

Nigel Farage will do a deal with the Conservatives if that is what it takes to win power, according to the author of a new book examining how the Reform UK leader has transformed British politics. Lord Ashcroft, a former Tory deputy chairman who has written a series of biographies of some of the most influential UK politicians, will not be surprised if the former City trader comes to an agreement with Conservative rivals if needed.

When asked whether he expects Reform UK will replace the Conservatives or if the tribes will unite, he said: “I don’t think the Tories are finished yet. It may be that the new multi-party landscape is here to stay. But having worked on this book, I am more certain than ever that Nigel Farage would be prepared to do a deal with the Conservatives should that become necessary.”

However, he does not expect any pre-election alliance.

He said: “I think any kind of pact before the election is extremely unlikely and probably unwise. My polling shows some of each party’s voters would be put off by it, especially on the Tory side. After the election, if it’s a choice between some kind of deal or another Labour term, I’m sure both parties would find it hard to resist. But that’s for the leaders to decide.”

Lord Ashcroft’s latest work – The Farage Factor: Reform UK and the Remaking of British Politics – comes on the heels of biographies of influential figures including Kemi Badenoch, Angela Rayner and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Stressing the long-term commitment of those involved in the Reform project, he said: “I think Nigel is serious about being prime minister. While working on the book, it was clear to me that those within Reform UK want to build a party that will last long into the future. That’s a difficult thing to do but they seem pretty determined to do it.”

There are now devout Christians at the heart of Reform, including former Conservative MP Danny Kruger and Cambridge academic James Orr. However, Lord Ashcroft does not sense that Mr Farage has been on a profound spiritual journey.

He said: “Nigel’s got a quiet faith but he’s very relaxed about politicians being religious. He personally is not particularly religious, as far as I know.”

Lord Ashcroft suspects the flow of defectors to Reform – who include former cabinet ministers Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman – from the Tories may have come to an end.

He said: “Robert Jenrick had clearly felt for some time that he wasn’t happy in the Conservative Party so his defection wasn’t a surprise. I’ve heard that some in Reform are not happy that so many ex-Tories now sit as Reform MPs. I’m not sure there will be any more joining.”

When asked whether he would join the Conservatives or Reform today if he was a young man with a passion for politics, he said: “I’ve been drawn to Kemi’s principled, straight-talking approach and I think that would be the same however young I was. But I can see why people are looking for an alternative like Reform and why they feel let down by the established parties. Her challenge is to show that the Tories have changed more than just their leader.”

Commenting on Mr Farage’s decision to back the two-child benefits cap, he said: “I think the state of the public finances left him with little choice. He said he originally wanted to scrap it not for populist reasons but because he wanted to encourage British people to have families because the birth rate is so low. But that tension between appealing to Red Wall voters and former Tories will throw up more dilemmas like that. The potential rise of Restore Britain will be another challenge for him.”

Lord Ashcroft has enjoyed greater influence than many MPs through his philanthropy, business activities and work for the Conservatives. He has ready advice for young people who dream of succeeding in business.

He said: “I would tell young entrepreneurs that, if their aim is to own a five-star hotel, they will almost certainly have to own several one, two, three and four-star hotels to achieve their goal. Rome wasn’t built in a day. One of their biggest challenges will be how they deal with their own mistakes and those of others to minimise the harmful effects on their young business.”